Kansas City ChiefsatDenver Broncos
Sun, Nov 1, 9:25 PM UTC · Empower Field at Mile High · Season 2026
The model compares each team's historical form and scoring profile; its estimate is not a certain outcome. Explore NFL projections, the methodology and the graded record.
Game data updated …
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
KC 22.1 — DEN 21.6
Win probability
KC 51%
Model confidence
Low
Projection built from each team's scoring over its last 10 games, form weighted toward the last 3 and 5, the strength of the opponents it faced, a home-field adjustment, and a small allowance for high-production players listed as unavailable. Statistical estimate, not a guaranteed outcome.
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
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Model insight
See exactly which factors moved this projection and how much weight each one carried — plus how the engine has performed on comparable games in this league and confidence band.
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A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Team comparison
KC (left) versus DEN (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
Kansas City Chiefs
- Last 5
- 3-2
- Last 10
- 5-5
- Avg scored
- 20.1
- Avg allowed
- 21.6
- Streak
- W3
Denver Broncos
- Last 5
- 3-2
- Last 10
- 5-5
- Avg scored
- 23.0
- Avg allowed
- 21.1
- Streak
- W2
Historical matchup
DEN 2 — 5 KC
Sample size: 7 games
Head-to-head history is context, not prediction — rosters, coaching and circumstances change between meetings.
Player availability
Kansas City Chiefs
- Dustin ColquittPavailable
- Matt MooreQBavailable
- LeSean McCoyRBavailable
- Anthony ShermanRBavailable
- Spencer WareRBavailable
- Travis KelceTEavailable
- Damien WilliamsRBavailable
- Sammy WatkinsWRavailable
- Blake BellTEavailable
- Kenneth Walker IIIavailable
- Emmett Johnsonavailable
- Khyiris Tongaavailable
- Jake Briningstoolavailable
- Jalen Royalsavailable
- Noah Grayavailable
- Nick Boltonavailable
- L'Jarius Sneedavailable
- Drue Tranquillavailable
- Alohi Gilmanavailable
- Nohl Williamsavailable
- George Karlaftisavailable
- Peter Woodsavailable
- Ben VanSumerenavailable
- Demarcus RobinsonWRavailable
- Tyreek HillWRavailable
- Patrick MahomesQBavailable
- Byron PringleWRavailable
- Darrel WilliamsRBavailable
- Deon YelderTEavailable
- Mecole HardmanWRavailable
- Darwin ThompsonRBavailable
- JuJu Smith-SchusterWRavailable
- Chad HenneQBavailable
- Le'Veon BellRBavailable
- Eric FisherTavailable
- Gehrig DieterWRavailable
- Marcus KempWRavailable
- Ricky Seals-JonesTEavailable
- Nick KeizerTEavailable
- Derrick GoreRBavailable
- Tommy TownsendPavailable
- Clyde Edwards-HelaireRBavailable
- Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWRavailable
- Justin WatsonWRavailable
- Mike RemmersTavailable
- Josh GordonWRavailable
- Jerick McKinnonRBavailable
- Michael BurtonFBavailable
- Nick AllegrettiGavailable
- Joseph FortsonTEavailable
- Noah GrayTEavailable
- Ronald JonesRBavailable
- Justyn RossWRavailable
- Kadarius ToneyWRavailable
- Isiah PachecoRBavailable
- Skyy MooreWRavailable
- Blaine GabbertQBavailable
- Donovan SmithTavailable
- Richie JamesWRavailable
- La'Mical PerineRBavailable
- Rashee RiceWRavailable
- DeAndre HopkinsWRavailable
- Carson WentzQBavailable
- Samaje PerineRBavailable
- Kareem HuntRBavailable
- Marquise BrownWRavailable
- Mike CaliendoGavailable
- Matt AraizaPavailable
- Chris OladokunQBavailable
- Peyton HendershotTEavailable
- Nikko RemigioWRavailable
- Wanya MorrisTavailable
- Baylor CuppTEavailable
- Carson SteeleRBavailable
- Jared WileyTEavailable
- Jaden HicksSSavailable
- Xavier WorthyWRavailable
- Xavier Nwankpaavailable
- R Mason Thomasavailable
- Harrison Butkeravailable
- Cooper McDonaldavailable
- Jadon Canadyavailable
- Jaylon Mooreavailable
- Christian RolandWallaceavailable
- Marcus Harrisavailable
- Felix AnudikeUzomahavailable
- Brashard Smithavailable
- Nikko Remigioavailable
- Chamarri Connerquestionable
- Patrick Mahomesavailable
- Chris Oladokunavailable
- Shane Buecheleavailable
- Gardner Minshewavailable
- Kareem Huntavailable
- Isiah Pachecoavailable
- Xavier Worthyavailable
- Rashee Riceavailable
- Clyde Edwards-Helaireavailable
- Dameon Pierceavailable
- Travis Kelceavailable
- Marquise Brownavailable
- Tyquan Thorntonavailable
- JuJu Smith-Schusteravailable
- Jared Wileyavailable
- Robert Tonyanavailable
- Bryan Cookavailable
- Jaylen Watsonavailable
- Trent McDuffieavailable
- Leo Chenalavailable
- Jaden Hicksavailable
- Ashton Gillotteavailable
- Chris Jonesavailable
- Charles Omenihuavailable
- Mike Dannaavailable
- Jerry Tilleryavailable
- Jack Cochraneavailable
- Kristian Fultonavailable
- Derrick Nnadiavailable
- Jeffrey Bassaavailable
- Kevin Knowles IIavailable
- Mike Edwardsavailable
- Mike Pennel Jr.available
- Joshua Williamsavailable
- Zacch Pickensavailable
- Omarr NormanLottavailable
- Ethan Downsavailable
- James Winchesteravailable
- Jason Brownleeavailable
- Nazeeh Johnsonavailable
- Cole Christiansenavailable
- Mike Caliendoavailable
- Marlon Tuipulotuavailable
- Josh Simmonsquestionable
- Matt Araizaavailable
Denver Broncos
- Joe FlaccoQBavailable
- J.K. Dobbinsavailable
- RJ Harveyavailable
- Justin Strnadavailable
- Dondrea Tillmanavailable
- Pat Surtain IIavailable
- Quandarrius Robinsonavailable
- Diontae SpencerWRavailable
- Jeff HeuermanTEavailable
- Brandon AllenQBavailable
- Andy JanovichFBavailable
- Devontae BookerRBavailable
- Tim PatrickWRavailable
- Fred BrownWRavailable
- Colby WadmanPavailable
- Latavius MurrayRBavailable
- Eric TomlinsonTEavailable
- Jonah Colemanavailable
- Phillip LindsayRBavailable
- Courtland SuttonWRavailable
- DaeSean HamiltonWRavailable
- Troy FumagalliTEavailable
- Royce FreemanRBavailable
- Andrew BeckFBavailable
- Jaleel McLaughlinavailable
- Jarrett Stidhamavailable
- Lil'Jordan Humphreyavailable
- Trent Sherfieldavailable
- Lucas Krullavailable
- Michael Bandyavailable
- Jonathon Cooperavailable
- Dre Greenlawavailable
- John Franklin-Myersavailable
- P.J. Lockeavailable
- Noah FantTEavailable
- Drew LockQBavailable
- Marlon MackRBavailable
- Jordan Jacksonavailable
- Garret Wallowavailable
- Reese Tayloravailable
- Delarrin Turner-Yellavailable
- Quinn Meinerzavailable
- Luke Wattenbergavailable
- Mike McGlincheyavailable
- Zach Allenavailable
- Eyioma Uwazurikeavailable
- Sam MartinPavailable
- Melvin GordonRBavailable
- Nick VannettTEavailable
- Jeff DriskelQBavailable
- Jake ButtTEavailable
- Brett RypienQBavailable
- Kendall HintonWRavailable
- LeVante BellamyRBavailable
- Jerry JeudyWRavailable
- K.J. HamlerWRavailable
- Albert OkwuegbunamTEavailable
- Tyrie ClevelandWRavailable
- Teddy BridgewaterQBavailable
- Pat Bryantavailable
- Nate Adkinsavailable
- Troy Franklinavailable
- Tyler Badieavailable
- Eric SaubertTEavailable
- David MooreWRavailable
- Jaylen Waddleavailable
- Evan Engramavailable
- Courtland Suttonavailable
- Adam Trautmanavailable
- Adam Prenticeavailable
- Alex Singletonavailable
- Talanoa Hufangaavailable
- Brandon Jonesavailable
- Riley Mossavailable
- Mike BooneRBavailable
- Malcolm Roachavailable
- Ja'Quan McMillianavailable
- Devon Keyavailable
- Jahdae Barronavailable
- Tycen Andersonavailable
- Jonah Ellissavailable
- JL Skinneravailable
- Jordan Turneravailable
- Nik Bonittoavailable
- Karene Reidavailable
- Bo Nixavailable
- D.J. Jonesavailable
- Mitchell Fraboniavailable
- Wil Lutzavailable
- Kris AbramsDraineavailable
- Marvin Mimsavailable
- Jeremy Crawshawavailable
- Damarea CrockettRBavailable
- Chase EdmondsRBavailable
- Seth WilliamsWRavailable
- Javonte WilliamsRBavailable
- Russell WilsonQBavailable
- Devine OzigboRBavailable
- Freddie SwainWRavailable
- Tyler BadieRBavailable
- Greg DulcichTEavailable
- Montrell WashingtonWRavailable
- Brandon JohnsonWRavailable
- Jalen VirgilWRavailable
- Chris ManhertzTEavailable
- Michael BurtonFBavailable
- Phillip DorsettWRavailable
- Samaje PerineRBavailable
- Jarrett StidhamQBavailable
- Lil'Jordan HumphreyWRavailable
- Adam TrautmanTEavailable
- Lucas KrullTEavailable
- Nate AdkinsTEavailable
- Jaleel McLaughlinRBavailable
- Marvin Mims Jr.WRavailable
- Riley DixonPavailable
- Audric EstimeRBavailable
- Devaughn VeleWRavailable
- Blake WatsonRBavailable
- Bo NixQBavailable
- Troy FranklinWRavailable
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