Model Lab
Every EdgeIQ model version is stored and graded against completed games. Historical predictions are never overwritten and weak results are published alongside strong ones.
Chronological backtesting
These evaluations only use information available before each game and test each version on later, unseen games.
NFL watchlist
NFL games to watch
Upcoming matchups where the baseline model estimates one team at 70% or higher, with historical context for the same confidence level.
These are statistical estimates for research and games worth closer analysis—not betting recommendations or guaranteed outcomes. Model probability is not the same as historical accuracy.
Live and historical model records
This archive is separate from the chronological backtest above. Headline rates appear only after at least 30 graded games.
EdgeIQ Baseline
Gradient-style baseline blending team power ratings, recent form, home advantage, rest and pace, with logistic probability calibration.
Sample
1390
Accuracy
69%
Brier
0.256
Log loss
1.129
Mean abs. error
27.14
Model performance detail
Month-by-month accuracy trends and the full calibration breakdown for this model version, so you can see how closely stated confidence matched real outcomes.
Your plan: Free · Unlocks with Pro — $7.98/month
Metrics are statistical measures of past performance on a limited sample. They describe how the model has behaved historically and do not guarantee future results.
EdgeIQ Baseline
Gradient-style baseline blending team power ratings, recent form, home advantage, rest and pace, with logistic probability calibration.
Sample
2981
Accuracy
58%
Brier
0.272
Log loss
0.791
Mean abs. error
5.08
Model performance detail
Month-by-month accuracy trends and the full calibration breakdown for this model version, so you can see how closely stated confidence matched real outcomes.
Your plan: Free · Unlocks with Pro — $7.98/month
Metrics are statistical measures of past performance on a limited sample. They describe how the model has behaved historically and do not guarantee future results.
EdgeIQ Baseline
Gradient-style baseline blending team power ratings, recent form, home advantage, rest and pace, with logistic probability calibration.
Sample
1502
Accuracy
61%
Brier
0.237
Log loss
0.674
Mean abs. error
2.82
Model performance detail
Month-by-month accuracy trends and the full calibration breakdown for this model version, so you can see how closely stated confidence matched real outcomes.
Your plan: Free · Unlocks with Pro — $7.98/month
Metrics are statistical measures of past performance on a limited sample. They describe how the model has behaved historically and do not guarantee future results.
EdgeIQ Baseline
Gradient-style baseline blending team power ratings, recent form, home advantage, rest and pace, with logistic probability calibration.
Sample
4406
Accuracy
76%
Brier
0.176
Log loss
0.534
Mean abs. error
23.55
Model performance detail
Month-by-month accuracy trends and the full calibration breakdown for this model version, so you can see how closely stated confidence matched real outcomes.
Your plan: Free · Unlocks with Pro — $7.98/month
Metrics are statistical measures of past performance on a limited sample. They describe how the model has behaved historically and do not guarantee future results.
EdgeIQ Baseline
Gradient-style baseline blending team power ratings, recent form, home advantage, rest and pace, with logistic probability calibration.
Sample
6237
Accuracy
75%
Brier
0.168
Log loss
0.506
Mean abs. error
19.35
Model performance detail
Month-by-month accuracy trends and the full calibration breakdown for this model version, so you can see how closely stated confidence matched real outcomes.
Your plan: Free · Unlocks with Pro — $7.98/month
Metrics are statistical measures of past performance on a limited sample. They describe how the model has behaved historically and do not guarantee future results.
EdgeIQ NFL Performance
NFL projection from recent scoring, weighted form, home/away splits, opponent strength and rest.
Sample
1966
Accuracy
61%
Brier
0.234
Log loss
0.661
Mean abs. error
15.55
Model performance detail
Month-by-month accuracy trends and the full calibration breakdown for this model version, so you can see how closely stated confidence matched real outcomes.
Your plan: Free · Unlocks with Pro — $7.98/month
Metrics are statistical measures of past performance on a limited sample. They describe how the model has behaved historically and do not guarantee future results.
Community models
Models built by EdgeIQ members and published after review. Each one is graded on the same held-out games as the EdgeIQ baseline.
No community models have been published yet. Build one in the workbench and request publication.