Live predictions graded after games
EdgeIQ saves projections before a game and grades them against the final result. Live grading is different from a historical test: it reflects predictions made in operation rather than unseen games held out during model development. Rates need at least 30 completed predictions; a dash means that threshold has not been met.
175
66% across 175 graded predictions
By league
| League | Graded | Win accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| NFL | 29 | — |
| NBA | 0 | — |
| MLB | 5 | — |
| NHL | 0 | — |
| NCAA Football | 141 | 66% |
| NCAA Basketball | 0 | — |
Historical chronological testing
For each league, the current engine is evaluated on later games it did not see during training. These numbers are backtests, not live prediction results. A test accuracy rate cannot be combined with a live accuracy rate.
NFL · version v3.2.0
62% winner accuracy over 780 held-out games
Average margin error: 10.7 points over 780 tests
Average total-score error: 10.5 points over 780 tests
NBA · version v3.2.0
67% winner accuracy over 524 held-out games
Average margin error: 11.6 points over 524 tests
Average total-score error: 15.2 points over 524 tests
MLB · version v3.2.0
55% winner accuracy over 1162 held-out games
Average margin error: 3.5 points over 1162 tests
Average total-score error: 3.4 points over 1162 tests
NHL · version v3.2.0
60% winner accuracy over 568 held-out games
Average margin error: 2.2 points over 568 tests
Average total-score error: 1.9 points over 568 tests
NCAA Football · version v3.2.0
68% winner accuracy over 1028 held-out games
Average margin error: 16.3 points over 1028 tests
Average total-score error: 13.0 points over 1028 tests
NCAA Basketball · version v3.2.0
70% winner accuracy over 1948 held-out games
Average margin error: 8.8 points over 1948 tests
Average total-score error: 13.3 points over 1948 tests
Probability quality and score error
The archived model record below is a separate dataset from the current engine tests above. Brier score compares each predicted probability with the actual binary result; lower is better. Average score error is shown only where enough predictions have been graded. Model versions may overlap, so these rows must not be added together.
EdgeIQ Baseline · vv1.0.0 · NBA
1390 graded · Brier: 0.256 · Average score error: 27.14
EdgeIQ Baseline · vv1.0.0 · MLB
2981 graded · Brier: 0.272 · Average score error: 5.08
EdgeIQ Baseline · vv1.0.0 · NHL
1502 graded · Brier: 0.237 · Average score error: 2.82
EdgeIQ Baseline · vv1.0.0 · NCAA Football
4406 graded · Brier: 0.176 · Average score error: 23.55
EdgeIQ Baseline · vv1.0.0 · NCAA Basketball
6237 graded · Brier: 0.168 · Average score error: 19.35
EdgeIQ NFL Performance · vv2.0.0 · NFL
1966 graded · Brier: 0.234 · Average score error: 15.55
By confidence range
Confidence is a model label, not a guarantee. Accuracy for small groups is withheld to avoid making a handful of games look conclusive.
| League | Confidence | Graded | Win accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | high | 1838 | 61% |
| MLB | low | 547 | 50% |
| MLB | medium | 596 | 56% |
| NBA | high | 1208 | 72% |
| NBA | low | 96 | 53% |
| NBA | medium | 86 | 53% |
| NCAA Basketball | high | 4396 | 82% |
| NCAA Basketball | low | 733 | 49% |
| NCAA Basketball | medium | 1108 | 61% |
| NCAA Football | high | 1373 | 94% |
| NCAA Football | low | 1539 | 55% |
| NCAA Football | medium | 1494 | 80% |
| NFL | high | 287 | 70% |
| NFL | low | 918 | 55% |
| NFL | medium | 761 | 65% |
| NHL | high | 763 | 67% |
| NHL | low | 354 | 47% |
| NHL | medium | 385 | 60% |
Recent performance
A recent-window rate is not displayed until it can be calculated from enough timestamped, graded pregame predictions for that window. Not enough graded predictions yet. Historical version-level trends are available in the Model Lab where entitled.
Past performance does not guarantee future predictive accuracy. Learn how these measures are produced in our methodology, or read the analytics disclaimer.