Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Oct 4, 5:00 PM UTC · Raymond James Stadium · Season 2026
The model compares each team's historical form and scoring profile; its estimate is not a certain outcome. Explore NFL projections, the methodology and the graded record.
Game data updated …
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
GB 22.4 — TB 21.6
Win probability
GB 59%
Model confidence
Moderate
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
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Model vs. market
Model favourite
Green Bay Packers
Model probability
59%
Market implied (margin removed)
Unavailable
EdgeIQ Edge
Unavailable
Current moneyline: GB — · TB — · no stored market prices
Opening (first stored snapshot):
Confidence: Moderate · Model v3.2.0 · How Edge is calculated. Edge is a difference between two estimates, not a recommendation.
Why EdgeIQ sees it this way
- Team strength ratingfavours GB
Observation: Rating gap of 41.5 points including home advantage, built from every result so far.
- Recent formfavours TB
Observation: Last ten games: 2.2 difference in average margin; last five: -4.8.
- Scoring and defencefavours GB
Observation: Offence differs by 0.2 points per game, defence by -0.3.
- Opponent strength facedfavours GB
Observation: Schedule difficulty differs by -4.0 points of average opponent margin.
Observations are measured from past games. The probability above is the model's estimate built from them.
What could change this projection?
- 5 rostered players are listed as questionable, doubtful or out. Late status changes can move the projection.
- Unmodelled conditions — weather, travel, motivation, late scratches — are not fully captured by any model.
Model insight
See exactly which factors moved this projection and how much weight each one carried — plus how the engine has performed on comparable games in this league and confidence band.
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Market prices
No market prices available for this game yet.
Compare with an outside price
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A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Team comparison
GB (left) versus TB (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
Green Bay Packers
- Last 5
- 3-2
- Last 10
- 4-6
- Avg scored
- 23.1
- Avg allowed
- 24.3
- Streak
- L1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Last 5
- 1-4
- Last 10
- 4-6
- Avg scored
- 22.1
- Avg allowed
- 21.1
- Streak
- L4
Historical matchup
TB 1 — 0 GB
Sample size: 1 games
This is a very small sample. Head-to-head history carries little weight on its own, especially when rosters, coaching or circumstances have changed.
Player availability
Green Bay Packers
- Aaron RodgersQBavailable
- Marcedes LewisTEavailable
- Jimmy GrahamTEavailable
- Davante AdamsWRavailable
- Jake KumerowWRavailable
- Tyler ErvinRBavailable
- Geronimo AllisonWRavailable
- Dan VitaleFBavailable
- Aaron JonesRBavailable
- Robert TonyanTEavailable
- Jamaal WilliamsRBavailable
- David BakhtiariTavailable
- Tim BoyleQBavailable
- Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWRavailable
- Allen LazardWRavailable
- Dexter WilliamsRBavailable
- Darrius ShepherdWRavailable
- Jace SternbergerTEavailable
- Tavon AustinWRavailable
- MarShawn Lloydavailable
- Christopher Brooksavailable
- Kaleb Johnsonavailable
- Christian Watsonavailable
- Matthew Goldenavailable
- Tucker Kraftavailable
- Jonnu Smithavailable
- Skyy Mooreavailable
- Jayden Reedavailable
- Bo Meltonavailable
- Evan Williamsavailable
- Zaire Franklinavailable
- Edgerrin Cooperquestionable
- Keisean Nixonavailable
- Lukas Van Nessavailable
- Javon Bullardavailable
- Xavier McKinneyavailable
- Barryn Sorrellavailable
- Dani DennisSuttonavailable
- Equanimeous St. BrownWRavailable
- John LovettQBavailable
- Malik TaylorWRavailable
- Patrick TaylorRBavailable
- Malik Willisavailable
- Clayton Tuneavailable
- Josh Jacobsavailable
- Emanuel Wilsonavailable
- Savion Williamsavailable
- Dontayvion Wicksavailable
- Romeo Doubsavailable
- Luke Musgraveavailable
- Malik Heathavailable
- John FitzPatrickavailable
- A.J. DillonRBavailable
- Jakobie KeeneJamesavailable
- Drake Dabneyavailable
- Quay Walkeravailable
- Colby Woodenavailable
- Rashan Garyavailable
- Micah Parsonsavailable
- Kingsley Enagbareavailable
- Carrington Valentineavailable
- Nate Hobbsavailable
- Zayne Andersonavailable
- Nazir Stackhouseavailable
- Jamon DumasJohnsonavailable
- Kitan Oladapoavailable
- Arron Mosbyavailable
- Josiah DeguaraTEavailable
- Dominique DafneyTEavailable
- Randall CobbWRavailable
- Jaylin Simpsonavailable
- Johnathan Baldwinavailable
- Shemar Bartholomewavailable
- Matthew Orzechavailable
- Trevon Diggsavailable
- Quinton Bohannaavailable
- Brandon McManusavailable
- Jordon Rileyavailable
- Sean Rhyanavailable
- Collin Oliveravailable
- Lucas Havrisikavailable
- Josh Whylequestionable
- Kurt BenkertQBavailable
- Brandon Cisseavailable
- Brenton Cox Jr.available
- Isaiah McDuffieavailable
- Kamal Haddenavailable
- Karl Brooksavailable
- Nick Niemannavailable
- Ty'Ron Hopperavailable
- Jonathan Fordavailable
- Devonte Wyattavailable
- J. Michael Sturdivantavailable
- Kristian Welchavailable
- Chris McClellanavailable
- Anthony Campbellavailable
- Juwann WinfreeWRavailable
- Warren Brinsonquestionable
- Dallin LeavittSSavailable
- Tyler DavisTEavailable
- Jordan LoveQBavailable
- Kylin HillRBavailable
- Javon Hargraveavailable
- Benjamin St-Justeavailable
- Zach Tomavailable
- Trey Smackavailable
- Daniel Whelanavailable
- Amari RodgersWRavailable
- Keisean NixonCBavailable
- Samori ToureWRavailable
- Romeo DoubsWRavailable
- Christian WatsonWRavailable
- Kenyan DrakeRBavailable
- James RobinsonRBavailable
- Bo MeltonWRavailable
- Sean CliffordQBavailable
- Dontayvion WicksWRavailable
- Malik HeathWRavailable
- Emanuel WilsonRBavailable
- Ben SimsTEavailable
- Tucker KraftTEavailable
- Luke MusgraveTEavailable
- Jayden ReedWRavailable
- Josh JacobsRBavailable
- John FitzPatrickTEavailable
- Malik WillisQBavailable
- Christopher BrooksRBavailable
- MarShawn LloydRBavailable
- Jordan Loveavailable
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Cade Ottonavailable
- Ted Hurstavailable
- Ryan GriffinQBavailable
- Cameron BrateTEavailable
- Mike EvansWRavailable
- Jameis WinstonQBavailable
- Breshad PerrimanWRavailable
- Peyton BarberRBavailable
- Cyril GraysonWRavailable
- Antony AuclairTEavailable
- Bobo WilsonWRavailable
- T.J. LoganRBavailable
- Dare OgunbowaleRBavailable
- O.J. HowardTEavailable
- Chris GodwinWRavailable
- Justin WatsonWRavailable
- Tanner HudsonTEavailable
- John FranklinWRavailable
- Codey McElroyTEavailable
- Vita VeaNTavailable
- Ronald JonesRBavailable
- Ishmael HymanWRavailable
- Scott MillerWRavailable
- Tom BradyQBavailable
- LeSean McCoyRBavailable
- Rob GronkowskiTEavailable
- Antonio BrownWRavailable
- Blaine GabbertQBavailable
- Kenjon BarnerRBavailable
- Joe HaegTavailable
- Jaydon MickensWRavailable
- Leonard FournetteRBavailable
- Tyler JohnsonWRavailable
- Ke'Shawn VaughnRBavailable
- Teddy Bridgewateravailable
- Rachaad Whiteavailable
- Sean Tuckerquestionable
- Sterling Shepardavailable
- Owen Wrightavailable
- Jalen McMillanquestionable
- Mike Evansavailable
- Ryan Milleravailable
- Payne Durhamavailable
- Devin Culpavailable
- Tristan Wirfsavailable
- Lavonte Davidavailable
- Jamel Deanavailable
- Logan Hallavailable
- Haason Reddickavailable
- Chris Braswellavailable
- Deion Jonesavailable
- Christian Izienavailable
- Greg Gainesavailable
- Kindle Vildoravailable
- Josh Hayesavailable
- John Bullockavailable
- Markees Wattsavailable
- Kaevon Merriweatheravailable
- Elijah Simmonsavailable
- C.J. Breweravailable
- Rashad Wisdomavailable
- Ko Kieftavailable
- J.T. Grayavailable
- Graham Bartonavailable
- Nick Jacksonavailable
- Evan Deckersavailable
- Sebastian Castroavailable
- Josiah Trotteravailable
- Alex Anzaloneavailable
- Antoine Winfield Jr.available
- Zyon McCollumavailable
- Benjamin Morrisonavailable
- A'Shawn Robinsonavailable
- Giovani BernardRBavailable
- Le'Veon BellRBavailable
- Tykee Smithavailable
- Keionte Scottavailable
- Kevin Knowles IIavailable
- YaYa Diabyavailable
- Anthony Nelsonavailable
- SirVocea Dennisavailable
- Kameron Johnsonavailable
- David Walkeravailable
- Rakeem Nunez-Rochesavailable
- Al-Quadin Muhammadavailable
- Rueben Bain Jr.available
- Miles Killebrewavailable
- Bauer Sharpavailable
- Chase McLaughlinavailable
- Josh Williamsavailable
- Deon YelderTEavailable
- Russell GageWRavailable
- Jaelon DardenWRavailable
- Julio JonesWRavailable
- Kyle RudolphTEavailable
- Kyle TraskQBavailable
- Rachaad WhiteRBavailable
- Ko KieftTEavailable
- Deven ThompkinsWRavailable
- Cade OttonTEavailable
- David MooreWRavailable
- David WellsTEavailable
- Chase EdmondsRBavailable
- Baker MayfieldQBavailable
- Rakim JarrettWRavailable
- Sean TuckerRBavailable
- Payne DurhamTEavailable
- Trey PalmerWRavailable
- Sterling ShepardWRavailable
- Tavierre ThomasCBavailable
- J.J. RussellILBavailable
- Ryan MillerWRavailable
- Bucky IrvingRBavailable
- Kameron JohnsonWRavailable
- Devin CulpTEavailable
- Jalen McMillanWRavailable
- Jacob Parrishavailable
- Vita Veaavailable
- Elijah Robertsavailable
- Calijah Kanceyavailable
- Riley Dixonavailable
- Baker Mayfieldavailable
- Bucky Irvingavailable
- Kenneth Gainwellavailable
- Chris Godwinavailable
- Tez Johnsonavailable
- Emeka Egbukaavailable
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