Kansas City ChiefsatAtlanta Falcons
Sun, Nov 15, 6:00 PM UTC · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Season 2026
The model compares each team's historical form and scoring profile; its estimate is not a certain outcome. Explore NFL projections, the methodology and the graded record.
Game data updated …
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
KC 21.2 — ATL 20.5
Win probability
KC 52%
Model confidence
Low
Projection built from each team's scoring over its last 10 games, form weighted toward the last 3 and 5, the strength of the opponents it faced, a home-field adjustment, and a small allowance for high-production players listed as unavailable. Statistical estimate, not a guaranteed outcome.
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
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Model insight
See exactly which factors moved this projection and how much weight each one carried — plus how the engine has performed on comparable games in this league and confidence band.
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A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Team comparison
KC (left) versus ATL (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
Kansas City Chiefs
- Last 5
- 3-2
- Last 10
- 5-5
- Avg scored
- 20.1
- Avg allowed
- 21.6
- Streak
- W3
Atlanta Falcons
- Last 5
- 3-2
- Last 10
- 5-5
- Avg scored
- 22.0
- Avg allowed
- 20.3
- Streak
- W1
Historical matchup
ATL 0 — 1 KC
Sample size: 1 games
This is a very small sample. Head-to-head history carries little weight on its own, especially when rosters, coaching or circumstances have changed.
Player availability
Kansas City Chiefs
- Dustin ColquittPavailable
- Matt MooreQBavailable
- LeSean McCoyRBavailable
- Anthony ShermanRBavailable
- Spencer WareRBavailable
- Travis KelceTEavailable
- Damien WilliamsRBavailable
- Sammy WatkinsWRavailable
- Blake BellTEavailable
- Kenneth Walker IIIavailable
- Emmett Johnsonavailable
- Khyiris Tongaavailable
- Jake Briningstoolavailable
- Jalen Royalsavailable
- Noah Grayavailable
- Nick Boltonavailable
- L'Jarius Sneedavailable
- Drue Tranquillavailable
- Alohi Gilmanavailable
- Nohl Williamsavailable
- George Karlaftisavailable
- Peter Woodsavailable
- Ben VanSumerenavailable
- Demarcus RobinsonWRavailable
- Tyreek HillWRavailable
- Patrick MahomesQBavailable
- Byron PringleWRavailable
- Darrel WilliamsRBavailable
- Deon YelderTEavailable
- Mecole HardmanWRavailable
- Darwin ThompsonRBavailable
- JuJu Smith-SchusterWRavailable
- Chad HenneQBavailable
- Le'Veon BellRBavailable
- Eric FisherTavailable
- Gehrig DieterWRavailable
- Marcus KempWRavailable
- Ricky Seals-JonesTEavailable
- Nick KeizerTEavailable
- Derrick GoreRBavailable
- Tommy TownsendPavailable
- Clyde Edwards-HelaireRBavailable
- Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWRavailable
- Justin WatsonWRavailable
- Mike RemmersTavailable
- Josh GordonWRavailable
- Jerick McKinnonRBavailable
- Michael BurtonFBavailable
- Nick AllegrettiGavailable
- Joseph FortsonTEavailable
- Noah GrayTEavailable
- Ronald JonesRBavailable
- Justyn RossWRavailable
- Kadarius ToneyWRavailable
- Isiah PachecoRBavailable
- Skyy MooreWRavailable
- Blaine GabbertQBavailable
- Donovan SmithTavailable
- Richie JamesWRavailable
- La'Mical PerineRBavailable
- Rashee RiceWRavailable
- DeAndre HopkinsWRavailable
- Carson WentzQBavailable
- Samaje PerineRBavailable
- Kareem HuntRBavailable
- Marquise BrownWRavailable
- Mike CaliendoGavailable
- Matt AraizaPavailable
- Chris OladokunQBavailable
- Peyton HendershotTEavailable
- Nikko RemigioWRavailable
- Wanya MorrisTavailable
- Baylor CuppTEavailable
- Carson SteeleRBavailable
- Jared WileyTEavailable
- Jaden HicksSSavailable
- Xavier WorthyWRavailable
- Xavier Nwankpaavailable
- R Mason Thomasavailable
- Harrison Butkeravailable
- Cooper McDonaldavailable
- Jadon Canadyavailable
- Jaylon Mooreavailable
- Christian RolandWallaceavailable
- Marcus Harrisavailable
- Felix AnudikeUzomahavailable
- Brashard Smithavailable
- Nikko Remigioavailable
- Chamarri Connerquestionable
- Patrick Mahomesavailable
- Chris Oladokunavailable
- Shane Buecheleavailable
- Gardner Minshewavailable
- Kareem Huntavailable
- Isiah Pachecoavailable
- Xavier Worthyavailable
- Rashee Riceavailable
- Clyde Edwards-Helaireavailable
- Dameon Pierceavailable
- Travis Kelceavailable
- Marquise Brownavailable
- Tyquan Thorntonavailable
- JuJu Smith-Schusteravailable
- Jared Wileyavailable
- Robert Tonyanavailable
- Bryan Cookavailable
- Jaylen Watsonavailable
- Trent McDuffieavailable
- Leo Chenalavailable
- Jaden Hicksavailable
- Ashton Gillotteavailable
- Chris Jonesavailable
- Charles Omenihuavailable
- Mike Dannaavailable
- Jerry Tilleryavailable
- Jack Cochraneavailable
- Kristian Fultonavailable
- Derrick Nnadiavailable
- Jeffrey Bassaavailable
- Kevin Knowles IIavailable
- Mike Edwardsavailable
- Mike Pennel Jr.available
- Joshua Williamsavailable
- Zacch Pickensavailable
- Omarr NormanLottavailable
- Ethan Downsavailable
- James Winchesteravailable
- Jason Brownleeavailable
- Nazeeh Johnsonavailable
- Cole Christiansenavailable
- Mike Caliendoavailable
- Marlon Tuipulotuavailable
- Josh Simmonsquestionable
- Matt Araizaavailable
Atlanta Falcons
- Matt SchaubQBavailable
- Matt RyanQBavailable
- Julio JonesWRavailable
- Luke StockerTEavailable
- Jack Strandavailable
- Brian Robinson Jr.available
- Kenjon BarnerRBavailable
- Keith SmithFBavailable
- Devonta FreemanRBavailable
- Justin HardyWRavailable
- Ty SambrailoTavailable
- Austin HooperTEavailable
- Drake Londonavailable
- Jahan Dotsonavailable
- Austin Hooperavailable
- Zachariah Branchavailable
- Kyle Pittsavailable
- Olamide Zaccheausavailable
- Jessie Bates IIIavailable
- Nick Museavailable
- Brandon Dorlusavailable
- Josh Woodsavailable
- Samson Ebukamavailable
- Zach Harrisonavailable
- Jared Iveyavailable
- David Sills Vavailable
- Casey Washingtonavailable
- Ray-Ray McCloud IIIavailable
- Charlie Woerneravailable
- Dylan Drummondavailable
- DeMarcco Hellamsavailable
- Billy Bowmanavailable
- Brian HillRBavailable
- Damien WilliamsRBavailable
- MyCole PruittTEavailable
- Damiere ByrdWRavailable
- Bralen Triceavailable
- Christian BlakeWRavailable
- Ito SmithRBavailable
- Russell GageWRavailable
- Jaeden GrahamTEavailable
- Calvin RidleyWRavailable
- Olamide ZaccheausWRavailable
- Kaleb McGaryTavailable
- Qadree OllisonRBavailable
- KhaDarel Hodgeavailable
- Kaden Ellissavailable
- Dee Alfordavailable
- David Onyemataavailable
- Jalon Walkeravailable
- Arnold Ebiketieavailable
- JD Bertrandavailable
- Ronnie Harrison Jr.available
- Kentavius Streetavailable
- Leonard Floydavailable
- Sam Robertsavailable
- Natrone Brooksavailable
- Jacobee Bryantavailable
- DeAngelo Maloneavailable
- Khalid Kareemavailable
- Keith Taylor Jr.available
- Elijah Garciaavailable
- Ta'Quon Grahamavailable
- Jordan Fulleravailable
- Chris Lindstromavailable
- Elijah Wilkinsonavailable
- Younghoe Kooavailable
- Jammie Robinsonavailable
- Chris Blairavailable
- Liam McCulloughavailable
- Bradley Pinionavailable
- Clark Phillips IIIavailable
- Jake Matthewsavailable
- Teagan Quitorianoavailable
- Ryan Neuzilavailable
- Zane Gonzalezavailable
- John Parker Romoavailable
- Jamal Agnewavailable
- Marcus MariotaQBavailable
- Anthony FirkserTEavailable
- Michael Penix Jr.available
- Kirk Cousinsavailable
- Tyler Allgeieravailable
- Nathan Carteravailable
- Deven Thompkinsavailable
- Feleipe Franksavailable
- Darnell Mooneyavailable
- Todd GurleyRBavailable
- James Pearce Jr.available
- Ruke Orhorhoroavailable
- Sharrod NeasmanCBavailable
- Laquon TreadwellWRavailable
- Brandon PowellWRavailable
- Hayden HurstTEavailable
- Tony Brooks-JamesRBavailable
- Xavier Wattsavailable
- Sydney Brownavailable
- Divine Deabloavailable
- Mike Hughesavailable
- LaCale Londonavailable
- Kendal Danielsavailable
- Jake Baileyavailable
- Harold Perkins Jr.available
- Lorenzo CarterOLBavailable
- Matthew Bergeronavailable
- Christian Harrisavailable
- Nick Folkavailable
- Lee SmithTEavailable
- Cordarrelle PattersonRBavailable
- Mike DavisRBavailable
- Tajae SharpeWRavailable
- A.J. Terrellavailable
- Marvin HallWRavailable
- CJ Hendersonavailable
- Gervon Dexter Sr.available
- Za'Darius Smithavailable
- Cameron Thomasavailable
- Maason Smithavailable
- Avieon Terrellavailable
- Mike Fordavailable
- Yasir Abdullahavailable
- Wayne GallmanRBavailable
- Josh RosenQBavailable
- Parker HesseTEavailable
- Feleipe FranksTEavailable
- Frank DarbyWRavailable
- Kyle PittsTEavailable
- KhaDarel HodgeWRavailable
- Bryan EdwardsWRavailable
- John FitzPatrickTEavailable
- Caleb HuntleyRBavailable
- Avery WilliamsRBavailable
- Drake LondonWRavailable
- Tyler AllgeierRBavailable
- Desmond RidderQBavailable
- Josh AliWRavailable
- Taylor HeinickeQBavailable
- Mack HollinsWRavailable
- Jonnu SmithTEavailable
- Logan WoodsideQBavailable
- Scott MillerWRavailable
- Van JeffersonWRavailable
- Tucker FiskTEavailable
- Bijan RobinsonRBavailable
- Kirk CousinsQBavailable
- Ross DwelleyTEavailable
- Ray-Ray McCloudWRavailable
- Darnell MooneyWRavailable
- Charlie WoernerTEavailable
- Chris BlairWRavailable
- Jase McClellanRBavailable
- Casey WashingtonWRavailable
- Michael PenixQBavailable
- Cooper Rushavailable
- Bijan Robinsonavailable
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