Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Chargers
Sun, Oct 11, 8:05 PM UTC · SoFi Stadium · Season 2026
The model compares each team's historical form and scoring profile; its estimate is not a certain outcome. Explore NFL projections, the methodology and the graded record.
Game data updated …
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
DEN 22.6 — LAC 20.9
Win probability
DEN 66%
Model confidence
Moderate
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
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Model insight
See exactly which factors moved this projection and how much weight each one carried — plus how the engine has performed on comparable games in this league and confidence band.
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A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Team comparison
DEN (left) versus LAC (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
Denver Broncos
- Last 5
- 3-2
- Last 10
- 5-5
- Avg scored
- 23.0
- Avg allowed
- 21.1
- Streak
- W2
Los Angeles Chargers
- Last 5
- 0-5
- Last 10
- 4-6
- Avg scored
- 22.6
- Avg allowed
- 23.0
- Streak
- L5
Historical matchup
LAC 3 — 3 DEN
Sample size: 6 games
Head-to-head history is context, not prediction — rosters, coaching and circumstances change between meetings.
Player availability
Denver Broncos
- Joe FlaccoQBavailable
- J.K. Dobbinsavailable
- RJ Harveyavailable
- Justin Strnadavailable
- Dondrea Tillmanavailable
- Pat Surtain IIavailable
- Quandarrius Robinsonavailable
- Diontae SpencerWRavailable
- Jeff HeuermanTEavailable
- Brandon AllenQBavailable
- Andy JanovichFBavailable
- Devontae BookerRBavailable
- Tim PatrickWRavailable
- Fred BrownWRavailable
- Colby WadmanPavailable
- Latavius MurrayRBavailable
- Eric TomlinsonTEavailable
- Jonah Colemanavailable
- Phillip LindsayRBavailable
- Courtland SuttonWRavailable
- DaeSean HamiltonWRavailable
- Troy FumagalliTEavailable
- Royce FreemanRBavailable
- Andrew BeckFBavailable
- Jaleel McLaughlinavailable
- Jarrett Stidhamavailable
- Lil'Jordan Humphreyavailable
- Trent Sherfieldavailable
- Lucas Krullavailable
- Michael Bandyavailable
- Jonathon Cooperavailable
- Dre Greenlawavailable
- John Franklin-Myersavailable
- P.J. Lockeavailable
- Noah FantTEavailable
- Drew LockQBavailable
- Marlon MackRBavailable
- Jordan Jacksonavailable
- Garret Wallowavailable
- Reese Tayloravailable
- Delarrin Turner-Yellavailable
- Quinn Meinerzavailable
- Luke Wattenbergavailable
- Mike McGlincheyavailable
- Zach Allenavailable
- Eyioma Uwazurikeavailable
- Sam MartinPavailable
- Melvin GordonRBavailable
- Nick VannettTEavailable
- Jeff DriskelQBavailable
- Jake ButtTEavailable
- Brett RypienQBavailable
- Kendall HintonWRavailable
- LeVante BellamyRBavailable
- Jerry JeudyWRavailable
- K.J. HamlerWRavailable
- Albert OkwuegbunamTEavailable
- Tyrie ClevelandWRavailable
- Teddy BridgewaterQBavailable
- Pat Bryantavailable
- Nate Adkinsavailable
- Troy Franklinavailable
- Tyler Badieavailable
- Eric SaubertTEavailable
- David MooreWRavailable
- Jaylen Waddleavailable
- Evan Engramavailable
- Courtland Suttonavailable
- Adam Trautmanavailable
- Adam Prenticeavailable
- Alex Singletonavailable
- Talanoa Hufangaavailable
- Brandon Jonesavailable
- Riley Mossavailable
- Mike BooneRBavailable
- Malcolm Roachavailable
- Ja'Quan McMillianavailable
- Devon Keyavailable
- Jahdae Barronavailable
- Tycen Andersonavailable
- Jonah Ellissavailable
- JL Skinneravailable
- Jordan Turneravailable
- Nik Bonittoavailable
- Karene Reidavailable
- Bo Nixavailable
- D.J. Jonesavailable
- Mitchell Fraboniavailable
- Wil Lutzavailable
- Kris AbramsDraineavailable
- Marvin Mimsavailable
- Jeremy Crawshawavailable
- Damarea CrockettRBavailable
- Chase EdmondsRBavailable
- Seth WilliamsWRavailable
- Javonte WilliamsRBavailable
- Russell WilsonQBavailable
- Devine OzigboRBavailable
- Freddie SwainWRavailable
- Tyler BadieRBavailable
- Greg DulcichTEavailable
- Montrell WashingtonWRavailable
- Brandon JohnsonWRavailable
- Jalen VirgilWRavailable
- Chris ManhertzTEavailable
- Michael BurtonFBavailable
- Phillip DorsettWRavailable
- Samaje PerineRBavailable
- Jarrett StidhamQBavailable
- Lil'Jordan HumphreyWRavailable
- Adam TrautmanTEavailable
- Lucas KrullTEavailable
- Nate AdkinsTEavailable
- Jaleel McLaughlinRBavailable
- Marvin Mims Jr.WRavailable
- Riley DixonPavailable
- Audric EstimeRBavailable
- Devaughn VeleWRavailable
- Blake WatsonRBavailable
- Bo NixQBavailable
- Troy FranklinWRavailable
Los Angeles Chargers
- Philip RiversQBavailable
- Lance KendricksTEavailable
- Tyrod TaylorQBavailable
- Virgil GreenTEavailable
- Travis BenjaminWRavailable
- Keenan AllenWRavailable
- Justin Herbertavailable
- Omarion Hamptonavailable
- Jaret Pattersonavailable
- Najee Harrisavailable
- Hassan Haskinsavailable
- Tre Harrisavailable
- Amar Johnsonavailable
- Quentin Johnstonavailable
- Derius Davisavailable
- Tyler Conklinavailable
- Trayveon Williamsavailable
- Nyheim Hinesavailable
- Ladd McConkeyavailable
- Keenan Allenavailable
- Oronde Gadsden IIavailable
- Will Disslyavailable
- KeAndre LambertSmithavailable
- Tucker Fiskavailable
- Scott Matlockavailable
- Daiyan Henleyavailable
- Derwin James Jr.available
- Troy Dyeavailable
- Tony Jeffersonavailable
- Tarheeb Stillavailable
- Cam Hartavailable
- Denzel Perrymanavailable
- Justin Eboigbeavailable
- Del'Shawn Phillipsavailable
- Benjamin St-Justeavailable
- Teair Tartavailable
- Khalil Mackavailable
- Jamaree Caldwellavailable
- R.J. Mickensavailable
- Da'Shawn Handavailable
- Odafe Owehavailable
- Ja'Sir Tayloravailable
- Marcus Mayeavailable
- Geremy DavisWRavailable
- Melvin GordonRBavailable
- Derek WattFBavailable
- Hunter HenryTEavailable
- Troymaine PopeRBavailable
- Mike WilliamsWRavailable
- Desmond KingCBavailable
- Sean CulkinTEavailable
- Austin EkelerRBavailable
- Andre PattonWRavailable
- Richard RodgersTEavailable
- DeAndre CarterWRavailable
- Justin JacksonRBavailable
- Jalen GuytonWRavailable
- Jason MooreWRavailable
- Gerald EverettTEavailable
- Ty LongPavailable
- Stephen AndersonTEavailable
- Kalen BallageRBavailable
- Easton StickQBavailable
- Donald ParhamTEavailable
- Tyron JohnsonWRavailable
- Maurice FfrenchWRavailable
- Darius BradwellRBavailable
- Gabe NabersFBavailable
- Justin HerbertQBavailable
- Joshua KelleyRBavailable
- Joe ReedWRavailable
- K.J. HillWRavailable
- Chase DanielQBavailable
- Jared CookTEavailable
- Andre RobertsWRavailable
- Trey Lancequestionable
- Tevaughn CampbellCBavailable
- Larry RountreeRBavailable
- Josh PalmerWRavailable
- Tre' McKittyTEavailable
- Sony MichelRBavailable
- Michael BandyWRavailable
- Zander HorvathRBavailable
- Stone SmarttTEavailable
- Isaiah SpillerRBavailable
- Nick VannettTEavailable
- Alex EricksonWRavailable
- Keelan DossWRavailable
- Trey PipkinsTavailable
- Simi FehokoWRavailable
- Nick NiemannILBavailable
- Quentin JohnstonWRavailable
- Derius DavisWRavailable
- Elijah DotsonRBavailable
- Eric TomlinsonTEavailable
- Taylor HeinickeQBavailable
- Will DisslyTEavailable
- J.K. ScottPavailable
- Gus EdwardsRBavailable
- D.J. CharkWRavailable
- Hayden HurstTEavailable
- J.K. DobbinsRBavailable
- Jalen ReagorWRavailable
- Hassan HaskinsRBavailable
- Tucker FiskTEavailable
- Scott MatlockFBavailable
- Kimani VidalRBavailable
- Ladd McConkeyWRavailable
- Cameron Dickeravailable
- Kyle Kennardavailable
- Nikko Reedavailable
- Deane Leonardavailable
- Josh Harrisavailable
- Clelin Ferrellavailable
- Austin Deculusavailable
- JK Scottavailable
- Donte Jacksonavailable
- Alohi Gilmanavailable
- Marlowe Waxavailable
- Bud Dupreeavailable
- Kendall Williamsonavailable
- Caleb Murphyavailable
- Otito Ogbonniaavailable
- Naquan Jonesavailable
- Marcus Williamsavailable
- Tuli Tuipulotuavailable
- Elijah Moldenavailable
- Brenen Thompsonquestionable
- Dalvin Tomlinsonquestionable
- Rodney Shelleyquestionable
- Keaton Mitchellavailable
- David Njokuavailable
- Charlie Kolaravailable
- Genesis Smithavailable
- Akheem Mesidoravailable
- Nick Barrettavailable
- Kimani Vidalavailable
- Alec Ingoldavailable
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