ToledoatBall State
Sat, Oct 3, 6:00 PM UTC · Venue TBD · Season 2026
The model compares each team's historical form and scoring profile; its estimate is not a certain outcome. Explore NCAA Football projections, the methodology and the graded record.
Game data updated …
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
TOL 32.7 — BS 26.2
Win probability
TOL 59%
Model confidence
Moderate
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
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Model insight
See exactly which factors moved this projection and how much weight each one carried — plus how the engine has performed on comparable games in this league and confidence band.
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Market prices
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A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Team comparison
TOL (left) versus BS (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
Toledo
- Last 5
- 4-1
- Last 10
- 6-4
- Avg scored
- 33.4
- Avg allowed
- 27.4
- Streak
- W3
Ball State
- Last 5
- 1-4
- Last 10
- 2-8
- Avg scored
- 21.4
- Avg allowed
- 35.5
- Streak
- L2
Historical matchup
These teams have no completed head-to-head games in the EdgeIQ database.
This is a very small sample. Head-to-head history carries little weight on its own, especially when rosters, coaching or circumstances have changed.
Player availability
Toledo
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
Ball State
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
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