Kansas City ChiefsatBuffalo Bills
Fri, Nov 27, 1:20 AM UTC · Highmark Stadium · Season 2026
The model compares each team's historical form and scoring profile; its estimate is not a certain outcome. Explore NFL projections, the methodology and the graded record.
Game data updated …
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
KC 20.0 — BUF 24.9
Win probability
BUF 60%
Model confidence
Moderate
Projection built from each team's scoring over its last 10 games, form weighted toward the last 3 and 5, the strength of the opponents it faced, a home-field adjustment, and a small allowance for high-production players listed as unavailable. Statistical estimate, not a guaranteed outcome.
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
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Model insight
See exactly which factors moved this projection and how much weight each one carried — plus how the engine has performed on comparable games in this league and confidence band.
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A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Team comparison
KC (left) versus BUF (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
Kansas City Chiefs
- Last 5
- 3-2
- Last 10
- 5-5
- Avg scored
- 20.1
- Avg allowed
- 21.6
- Streak
- W3
Buffalo Bills
- Last 5
- 5-0
- Last 10
- 8-2
- Avg scored
- 29.2
- Avg allowed
- 21.3
- Streak
- W6
Historical matchup
BUF 2 — 2 KC
Sample size: 4 games
Head-to-head history is context, not prediction — rosters, coaching and circumstances change between meetings.
Player availability
Kansas City Chiefs
- Dustin ColquittPavailable
- Matt MooreQBavailable
- LeSean McCoyRBavailable
- Anthony ShermanRBavailable
- Spencer WareRBavailable
- Travis KelceTEavailable
- Damien WilliamsRBavailable
- Sammy WatkinsWRavailable
- Blake BellTEavailable
- Kenneth Walker IIIavailable
- Emmett Johnsonavailable
- Khyiris Tongaavailable
- Jake Briningstoolavailable
- Jalen Royalsavailable
- Noah Grayavailable
- Nick Boltonavailable
- L'Jarius Sneedavailable
- Drue Tranquillavailable
- Alohi Gilmanavailable
- Nohl Williamsavailable
- George Karlaftisavailable
- Peter Woodsavailable
- Ben VanSumerenavailable
- Demarcus RobinsonWRavailable
- Tyreek HillWRavailable
- Patrick MahomesQBavailable
- Byron PringleWRavailable
- Darrel WilliamsRBavailable
- Deon YelderTEavailable
- Mecole HardmanWRavailable
- Darwin ThompsonRBavailable
- JuJu Smith-SchusterWRavailable
- Chad HenneQBavailable
- Le'Veon BellRBavailable
- Eric FisherTavailable
- Gehrig DieterWRavailable
- Marcus KempWRavailable
- Ricky Seals-JonesTEavailable
- Nick KeizerTEavailable
- Derrick GoreRBavailable
- Tommy TownsendPavailable
- Clyde Edwards-HelaireRBavailable
- Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWRavailable
- Justin WatsonWRavailable
- Mike RemmersTavailable
- Josh GordonWRavailable
- Jerick McKinnonRBavailable
- Michael BurtonFBavailable
- Nick AllegrettiGavailable
- Joseph FortsonTEavailable
- Noah GrayTEavailable
- Ronald JonesRBavailable
- Justyn RossWRavailable
- Kadarius ToneyWRavailable
- Isiah PachecoRBavailable
- Skyy MooreWRavailable
- Blaine GabbertQBavailable
- Donovan SmithTavailable
- Richie JamesWRavailable
- La'Mical PerineRBavailable
- Rashee RiceWRavailable
- DeAndre HopkinsWRavailable
- Carson WentzQBavailable
- Samaje PerineRBavailable
- Kareem HuntRBavailable
- Marquise BrownWRavailable
- Mike CaliendoGavailable
- Matt AraizaPavailable
- Chris OladokunQBavailable
- Peyton HendershotTEavailable
- Nikko RemigioWRavailable
- Wanya MorrisTavailable
- Baylor CuppTEavailable
- Carson SteeleRBavailable
- Jared WileyTEavailable
- Jaden HicksSSavailable
- Xavier WorthyWRavailable
- Xavier Nwankpaavailable
- R Mason Thomasavailable
- Harrison Butkeravailable
- Cooper McDonaldavailable
- Jadon Canadyavailable
- Jaylon Mooreavailable
- Christian RolandWallaceavailable
- Marcus Harrisavailable
- Felix AnudikeUzomahavailable
- Brashard Smithavailable
- Nikko Remigioavailable
- Chamarri Connerquestionable
- Patrick Mahomesavailable
- Chris Oladokunavailable
- Shane Buecheleavailable
- Gardner Minshewavailable
- Kareem Huntavailable
- Isiah Pachecoavailable
- Xavier Worthyavailable
- Rashee Riceavailable
- Clyde Edwards-Helaireavailable
- Dameon Pierceavailable
- Travis Kelceavailable
- Marquise Brownavailable
- Tyquan Thorntonavailable
- JuJu Smith-Schusteravailable
- Jared Wileyavailable
- Robert Tonyanavailable
- Bryan Cookavailable
- Jaylen Watsonavailable
- Trent McDuffieavailable
- Leo Chenalavailable
- Jaden Hicksavailable
- Ashton Gillotteavailable
- Chris Jonesavailable
- Charles Omenihuavailable
- Mike Dannaavailable
- Jerry Tilleryavailable
- Jack Cochraneavailable
- Kristian Fultonavailable
- Derrick Nnadiavailable
- Jeffrey Bassaavailable
- Kevin Knowles IIavailable
- Mike Edwardsavailable
- Mike Pennel Jr.available
- Joshua Williamsavailable
- Zacch Pickensavailable
- Omarr NormanLottavailable
- Ethan Downsavailable
- James Winchesteravailable
- Jason Brownleeavailable
- Nazeeh Johnsonavailable
- Cole Christiansenavailable
- Mike Caliendoavailable
- Marlon Tuipulotuavailable
- Josh Simmonsquestionable
- Matt Araizaavailable
Buffalo Bills
- Frank GoreRBavailable
- Andre RobertsWRavailable
- Lee SmithTEavailable
- Patrick DiMarcoFBavailable
- Cole BeasleyWRavailable
- Micah HydeFSavailable
- Matt BarkleyQBavailable
- John BrownWRavailable
- Senorise PerryRBavailable
- T.J. YeldonRBavailable
- Tyler KroftTEavailable
- Duke WilliamsWRavailable
- Isaiah McKenzieWRavailable
- Dion DawkinsTavailable
- Jamison CrowderWRavailable
- Robert FosterWRavailable
- Corey BojorquezPavailable
- Josh AllenQBavailable
- Ty Johnsonavailable
- Elijah Mooreavailable
- Devin SingletaryRBavailable
- Tommy SweeneyTEavailable
- Dawson KnoxTEavailable
- Duke JohnsonRBavailable
- Tanner GentryWRavailable
- Taiwan JonesRBavailable
- Stefon DiggsWRavailable
- Jake KumerowWRavailable
- Siran NealCBavailable
- Jaquan JohnsonFSavailable
- Reggie GilliamFBavailable
- Antonio WilliamsRBavailable
- Gabe DavisWRavailable
- Zack MossRBavailable
- Nyheim HinesRBavailable
- Emmanuel SandersWRavailable
- Matt BreidaRBavailable
- Davis WebbQBavailable
- Mitchell TrubiskyQBavailable
- Tommy DoyleTavailable
- Case KeenumQBavailable
- Quintin MorrisTEavailable
- James CookRBavailable
- Khalil ShakirWRavailable
- Latavius MurrayRBavailable
- Leonard FournetteRBavailable
- Trent SherfieldWRavailable
- Kyle AllenQBavailable
- Deonte HartyWRavailable
- Andy IsabellaWRavailable
- Ty JohnsonRBavailable
- Damien HarrisRBavailable
- Damar HamlinSSavailable
- Dalton KincaidTEavailable
- Amari CooperWRavailable
- Curtis SamuelWRavailable
- Mack HollinsWRavailable
- Mike WhiteQBavailable
- Zach DavidsonTEavailable
- Tyrell ShaversWRavailable
- Ray DavisRBavailable
- Keon ColemanWRavailable
- Reggie Gilliamavailable
- Tyrell Shaversavailable
- Jackson Hawesavailable
- Gabe Davisavailable
- Brandin Cooksavailable
- Curtis Samuelavailable
- Jordan Poyeravailable
- Matt Milanoavailable
- Taron Johnsonavailable
- Shaq Thompsonavailable
- Cam Lewisavailable
- Tre'Davious Whiteavailable
- AJ Epenesaavailable
- Joey Bosaavailable
- Taylor Rappavailable
- DaQuan Jonesavailable
- Larry Ogunjobiavailable
- T.J. Sandersavailable
- Phidarian Mathisavailable
- Dorian Strongavailable
- Jordan Phillipsavailable
- Keonta Jenkinsavailable
- Ja'Marcus Ingramavailable
- Andre Jonesavailable
- Baylon Spectoravailable
- Dane Jacksonavailable
- Darnell Savageavailable
- Zion Logueavailable
- Matt Prateravailable
- Mitch Wishnowskyavailable
- Michael Badgleyavailable
- Brandon Codringtonavailable
- Mecole Hardmanavailable
- Cameron Johnstonavailable
- Brad Robbinsavailable
- Frank Gore Jr.available
- Dalton Kincaidavailable
- Khalil Shakiravailable
- Joshua Palmeravailable
- Keon Colemanavailable
- Dawson Knoxavailable
- Terrel Bernardavailable
- Dorian Williamsavailable
- Christian Benfordavailable
- Cole Bishopavailable
- Davison Igbinosunavailable
- Michael Hoechtavailable
- C.J. Gardner-Johnsonavailable
- Bradley Chubbavailable
- Javon Solomonavailable
- Greg Rousseauavailable
- Deone Walkeravailable
- Dee Alfordavailable
- Jordan Hancockavailable
- Joe Andreessenavailable
- Keleki Latuavailable
- Ed Oliveravailable
- Kaleb ElarmsOrravailable
- Damar Hamlinavailable
- Maxwell Hairstonavailable
- T.J. Parkeravailable
- DeWayne Carteravailable
- Landon Jacksonavailable
- Greg Gainesavailable
- Sam Franklin Jr.available
- Tyler Bassavailable
- Greg Dortchavailable
- Tommy Domanavailable
- DJ Mooreavailable
- Josh Allenavailable
- Mitch Trubiskyavailable
- James Cookavailable
- Ray Davisavailable
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