Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints
Sun, Oct 11, 5:00 PM UTC · Caesars Superdome · Season 2026
The model compares each team's historical form and scoring profile; its estimate is not a certain outcome. Explore NFL projections, the methodology and the graded record.
Game data updated …
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
MIN 22.5 — NO 21.1
Win probability
MIN 70%
Model confidence
High
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
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Model vs. market
Model favourite
Minnesota Vikings
Model probability
70%
Market implied (margin removed)
Unavailable
EdgeIQ Edge
Unavailable
Current moneyline: MIN — · NO — · no stored market prices
Opening (first stored snapshot):
Confidence: High · Model v3.2.0 · How Edge is calculated. Edge is a difference between two estimates, not a recommendation.
Why EdgeIQ sees it this way
- Team strength ratingfavours MIN
Observation: Rating gap of 193.3 points including home advantage, built from every result so far.
- Recent formfavours MIN
Observation: Last ten games: -5.5 difference in average margin; last five: -5.0.
- Scoring and defencefavours NO
Observation: Offence differs by -0.5 points per game, defence by 1.9.
- Opponent strength facedfavours MIN
Observation: Schedule difficulty differs by -0.8 points of average opponent margin.
Observations are measured from past games. The probability above is the model's estimate built from them.
What could change this projection?
- 1 rostered player is listed as questionable, doubtful or out. Late status changes can move the projection.
- Unmodelled conditions — weather, travel, motivation, late scratches — are not fully captured by any model.
Model insight
See exactly which factors moved this projection and how much weight each one carried — plus how the engine has performed on comparable games in this league and confidence band.
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Market prices
No market prices available for this game yet.
Compare with an outside price
Enter the moneyline prices you have seen elsewhere. EdgeIQ converts them into a plain chance of winning, strips out the operator's built-in margin, and shows how that compares with the model estimate. EdgeIQ does not take wagers and shows no prices of its own.
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A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Team comparison
MIN (left) versus NO (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
Minnesota Vikings
- Last 5
- 3-2
- Last 10
- 6-4
- Avg scored
- 16.5
- Avg allowed
- 20.5
- Streak
- W3
New Orleans Saints
- Last 5
- 2-3
- Last 10
- 2-8
- Avg scored
- 17.6
- Avg allowed
- 27.1
- Streak
- L1
Historical matchup
NO 0 — 2 MIN
Sample size: 2 games
This is a very small sample. Head-to-head history carries little weight on its own, especially when rosters, coaching or circumstances have changed.
Player availability
Minnesota Vikings
- Kyle RudolphTEavailable
- Kirk CousinsQBavailable
- Adam ThielenWRavailable
- J.J. McCarthyavailable
- Max Brosmeravailable
- Cam Akersavailable
- Zavier Scottavailable
- Ty Chandleravailable
- Jalen Nailoravailable
- C.J. Hamavailable
- Adam Thielenavailable
- Ben Simsavailable
- Tai Feltonavailable
- Benjamin Yurosekavailable
- Stefon DiggsWRavailable
- Ameer AbdullahRBavailable
- Sean MannionQBavailable
- C.J. HamFBavailable
- Laquon TreadwellWRavailable
- Dalvin CookRBavailable
- Mike BooneRBavailable
- Tyler ConklinTEavailable
- Chad BeebeWRavailable
- Irv SmithTEavailable
- Alexander MattisonRBavailable
- Olabisi JohnsonWRavailable
- Alexander HollinsWRavailable
- Garrett BradburyCavailable
- Johnny MundtTEavailable
- Nick MullensQBavailable
- Tajae SharpeWRavailable
- Brandon DillonTEavailable
- Ben EllefsonTEavailable
- Carson Wentzavailable
- Jordan Addisonavailable
- Demond Claiborneavailable
- Blake Cashmanavailable
- Byron Murphy Jr.available
- Jalen Redmondavailable
- Dallas Turneravailable
- Isaiah Rodgersavailable
- Jacob Thomasavailable
- Justin JeffersonWRavailable
- Josh Metellusavailable
- Eric Wilsonavailable
- Caleb Banksavailable
- Levi Drake Rodriguezavailable
- Luke StockerTEavailable
- Theo Jacksonavailable
- James Pierreavailable
- Domonique Orangeavailable
- Tyrion IngramDawkinsavailable
- Harrison Smithavailable
- Andrew Van Ginkelavailable
- Ivan Pace Jr.questionable
- Jake Goldayavailable
- Andrew DePaolaavailable
- Jay Wardavailable
- Kyle Van Noyavailable
- Chaz Chamblissavailable
- Will Reichardavailable
- Bo Richteravailable
- Myles Priceavailable
- Brett Thorsonavailable
- Jeshaun Jonesavailable
- Ryan Wrightavailable
- Dede WestbrookWRavailable
- Christopher HerndonTEavailable
- K.J. OsbornWRavailable
- Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWRavailable
- Kene NwangwuRBavailable
- Kyler Murrayavailable
- Aaron Jonesavailable
- Jordan Masonavailable
- DeeJay Dallasavailable
- Justin Jeffersonavailable
- Tavierre Thomasavailable
- Fabian Moreauavailable
- Jeff Okudahavailable
- Tyler Battyavailable
- Elijah Williamsavailable
- Austin Keysavailable
- Kobe Kingavailable
- Sione Takitakiavailable
- Donovan Jacksonavailable
- Blake Brandelavailable
- Will Friesavailable
- Taki Taimaniavailable
- T.J. Hockensonavailable
- Josh Oliveravailable
- Jonathan Allenavailable
- Javon Hargraveavailable
- Jonathan Greenardavailable
- Kellen MondQBavailable
- T.J. HockensonTEavailable
- Jalen ReagorWRavailable
- Ty ChandlerRBavailable
- Jalen NailorWRavailable
- Ryan WrightPavailable
- Joshua DobbsQBavailable
- Brandon PowellWRavailable
- Josh OliverTEavailable
- Trishton JacksonWRavailable
- Cam AkersRBavailable
- Nick MuseTEavailable
- Jaren HallQBavailable
- Jordan AddisonWRavailable
- Aaron JonesRBavailable
- Trent SherfieldWRavailable
- Sam DarnoldQBavailable
- Myles GaskinRBavailable
New Orleans Saints
- Drew BreesQBavailable
- Ted GinnWRavailable
- Jared CookTEavailable
- Zach LineFBavailable
- Josh HillTEavailable
- Latavius MurrayRBavailable
- Teddy BridgewaterQBavailable
- Dwayne WashingtonRBavailable
- Michael ThomasWRavailable
- Taysom HillTEavailable
- Ricky OrtizFBavailable
- Austin CarrWRavailable
- Krishawn HoganWRavailable
- Justin HardeeCBavailable
- Alvin KamaraRBavailable
- Jarvis LandryWRavailable
- Tre'Quan SmithWRavailable
- Deonte HartyWRavailable
- Lil'Jordan HumphreyWRavailable
- David JohnsonRBavailable
- Jordan HowardRBavailable
- Emmanuel SandersWRavailable
- Bennie FowlerWRavailable
- Jameis WinstonQBavailable
- Michael BurtonFBavailable
- Ty MontgomeryWRavailable
- Tommylee LewisWRavailable
- Blake GillikinPavailable
- Tony JonesRBavailable
- Juwan JohnsonTEavailable
- Marquez CallawayWRavailable
- Adam TrautmanTEavailable
- Keith KirkwoodWRavailable
- Mark IngramRBavailable
- Chris HoganWRavailable
- Kenny StillsWRavailable
- Kevin WhiteWRavailable
- Trevor SiemianQBavailable
- Nick VannettTEavailable
- Tyler Shoughavailable
- Travis Etienne Jr.available
- CJ Donaldsonavailable
- Barion Brownavailable
- Garrett GriffinTEavailable
- Alex ArmahRBavailable
- Ethan WolfTEavailable
- Devine OzigboRBavailable
- Easop WinstonWRavailable
- Adam PrenticeFBavailable
- Ian BookQBavailable
- Andy DaltonQBavailable
- Eno BenjaminRBavailable
- Chris OlaveWRavailable
- Rashid ShaheedWRavailable
- Jimmy GrahamTEavailable
- Derek CarrQBavailable
- Jamaal WilliamsRBavailable
- Foster MoreauTEavailable
- Lynn BowdenWRavailable
- Kendre MillerRBavailable
- A.T. PerryWRavailable
- Jordan MimsRBavailable
- Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWRavailable
- Cedrick WilsonWRavailable
- Dante PettisWRavailable
- Clyde Edwards-HelaireRBavailable
- Kevin AustinWRavailable
- Jake HaenerQBavailable
- Spencer RattlerQBavailable
- Bub MeansWRavailable
- Matthew HayballPavailable
- Dallin HolkerTEavailable
- Jermaine JacksonWRavailable
- Mason TiptonWRavailable
- Spencer Rattleravailable
- Dante Pettisavailable
- Foster Moreauavailable
- Jack Stollavailable
- Ronnie Bellavailable
- Zaire Mitchell-Padenavailable
- Moliki Matavaoavailable
- Samori Toureavailable
- Demario Davisavailable
- Alontae Tayloravailable
- Bryan Breseeavailable
- Jonathan Bullardavailable
- Isaac Yiadomavailable
- Terrell Burgessavailable
- Jonah Williamsavailable
- Jaylan Fordavailable
- John Ridgewayavailable
- Khristian Boydavailable
- Michael Davisavailable
- Velus Jones Jr.available
- Zach Woodavailable
- Taliese Fuagaavailable
- Dillon Radunzavailable
- Blake Grupeavailable
- Eku Leotaavailable
- Charlie Smythavailable
- Nyheim Hinesavailable
- Kai Kroegeravailable
- Bryce Lanceavailable
- Noah Fantavailable
- Oscar Delpavailable
- Kevin Austin Jr.available
- Pete Werneravailable
- Kaden Ellissavailable
- Jonas Sankeravailable
- Taysom Hillavailable
- Chris Olaveavailable
- Alvin Kamaraavailable
- Devin Nealavailable
- Audric Estimeavailable
- Kendre Milleravailable
- Evan Hullavailable
- Mason Tiptonavailable
- Rashid Shaheedavailable
- Juwan Johnsonavailable
- Devaughn Veleavailable
- Brandin Cooksavailable
- Danny Stutsmanavailable
- Justin Reidavailable
- KoolAid McKinstryavailable
- Julian Blackmonavailable
- Nathan Shepherdavailable
- Carl Grandersonavailable
- Davon Godchauxavailable
- Martin Emerson Jr.available
- Anfernee Jenningsavailable
- Chris Rumph IIavailable
- Isaiah Stalbirdavailable
- Vernon Broughtonavailable
- Quincy Rileyavailable
- Jordan Howdenavailable
- Tyree Wilsonavailable
- Colby Woodenavailable
- Chase Youngavailable
- Cameron Jordanavailable
- Decamerion Richardsonavailable
- Treyton Welchavailable
- Daniel Carlsonavailable
- Jayden Priceavailable
- Ryan Wrightavailable
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