Tennessee StateatWestern Illinois
Sat, Oct 3, 8:00 PM UTC · Venue TBD · Season 2026
The model compares each team's historical form and scoring profile; its estimate is not a certain outcome. Explore NCAA Football projections, the methodology and the graded record.
Game data updated …
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
TS 24.4 — WI 35.8
Win probability
WI 61%
Model confidence
Moderate
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
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Model vs. market
Model favourite
Western Illinois
Model probability
61%
Market implied (margin removed)
Unavailable
EdgeIQ Edge
Unavailable
Current moneyline: TS — · WI — · no stored market prices
Opening (first stored snapshot):
Confidence: Moderate · Model v3.2.0 · How Edge is calculated. Edge is a difference between two estimates, not a recommendation.
Why EdgeIQ sees it this way
- Team strength ratingfavours TS
Observation: Rating gap of 27.2 points including home advantage, built from every result so far.
- Recent formfavours WI
Observation: Last ten games: 7.1 difference in average margin; last five: 29.4.
- Scoring and defencefavours TS
Observation: Offence differs by 7.5 points per game, defence by -10.4.
- Opponent strength facedfavours TS
Observation: Schedule difficulty differs by -4.1 points of average opponent margin.
Observations are measured from past games. The probability above is the model's estimate built from them.
What could change this projection?
- Unmodelled conditions — weather, travel, motivation, late scratches — are not fully captured by any model.
Model insight
See exactly which factors moved this projection and how much weight each one carried — plus how the engine has performed on comparable games in this league and confidence band.
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Market prices
No market prices available for this game yet.
Compare with an outside price
Enter the moneyline prices you have seen elsewhere. EdgeIQ converts them into a plain chance of winning, strips out the operator's built-in margin, and shows how that compares with the model estimate. EdgeIQ does not take wagers and shows no prices of its own.
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A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Team comparison
TS (left) versus WI (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
Tennessee State
- Last 5
- 1-4
- Last 10
- 5-5
- Avg scored
- 23.0
- Avg allowed
- 28.9
- Streak
- W1
Western Illinois
- Last 5
- 2-3
- Last 10
- 3-7
- Avg scored
- 34.9
- Avg allowed
- 33.7
- Streak
- L1
Historical matchup
WI 0 — 1 TS
Sample size: 1 games
This is a very small sample. Head-to-head history carries little weight on its own, especially when rosters, coaching or circumstances have changed.
Player availability
Tennessee State
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
Western Illinois
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
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