Alabama StateatArkansas-Pine Bluff
Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM UTC · Venue TBD · Season 2026
The model compares each team's historical form and scoring profile; its estimate is not a certain outcome. Explore NCAA Football projections, the methodology and the graded record.
Game data updated …
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
AS 29.0 — AB 24.6
Win probability
AS 59%
Model confidence
Moderate
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
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Model vs. market
Model favourite
Alabama State
Model probability
59%
Market implied (margin removed)
Unavailable
EdgeIQ Edge
Unavailable
Current moneyline: AS — · AB — · no stored market prices
Opening (first stored snapshot):
Confidence: Moderate · Model v3.2.0 · How Edge is calculated. Edge is a difference between two estimates, not a recommendation.
Why EdgeIQ sees it this way
- Team strength ratingfavours AS
Observation: Rating gap of 96.7 points including home advantage, built from every result so far.
- Recent formfavours AS
Observation: Last ten games: -20.0 difference in average margin; last five: -21.6.
- Scoring and defencefavours AS
Observation: Offence differs by 1.8 points per game, defence by -20.0.
- Opponent strength facedfavours AS
Observation: Schedule difficulty differs by -5.1 points of average opponent margin.
Observations are measured from past games. The probability above is the model's estimate built from them.
What could change this projection?
- Unmodelled conditions — weather, travel, motivation, late scratches — are not fully captured by any model.
Model insight
See exactly which factors moved this projection and how much weight each one carried — plus how the engine has performed on comparable games in this league and confidence band.
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Market prices
No market prices available for this game yet.
Compare with an outside price
Enter the moneyline prices you have seen elsewhere. EdgeIQ converts them into a plain chance of winning, strips out the operator's built-in margin, and shows how that compares with the model estimate. EdgeIQ does not take wagers and shows no prices of its own.
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A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Team comparison
AS (left) versus AB (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
Alabama State
- Last 5
- 4-1
- Last 10
- 7-3
- Avg scored
- 24.6
- Avg allowed
- 15.4
- Streak
- W1
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
- Last 5
- 2-3
- Last 10
- 3-7
- Avg scored
- 25.6
- Avg allowed
- 36.4
- Streak
- W1
Historical matchup
These teams have no completed head-to-head games in the EdgeIQ database.
This is a very small sample. Head-to-head history carries little weight on its own, especially when rosters, coaching or circumstances have changed.
Player availability
Alabama State
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
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