Oregon StateatBoise State
Sat, Nov 14, 10:00 PM UTC · Venue TBD · Season 2026
The model compares each team's historical form and scoring profile; its estimate is not a certain outcome. Explore NCAA Football projections, the methodology and the graded record.
Game data updated …
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
OS 18.2 — BS 37.8
Win probability
BS 95%
Model confidence
High
Baseline projection from season win rate and home advantage. Statistical estimate, not a guaranteed outcome.
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
Loading historical accuracy…
Model vs. market
Model favourite
Boise State
Model probability
95%
Market implied (margin removed)
Unavailable
EdgeIQ Edge
Unavailable
Current moneyline: OS — · BS — · no stored market prices
Opening (first stored snapshot):
Confidence: High · Model v1.0.0 · How Edge is calculated. Edge is a difference between two estimates, not a recommendation.
Why EdgeIQ sees it this way
The stored projection has no factor breakdown for this game.
Observations are measured from past games. The probability above is the model's estimate built from them.
What could change this projection?
- Some inputs were limited for this game, so the estimate carries extra uncertainty.
- Unmodelled conditions — weather, travel, motivation, late scratches — are not fully captured by any model.
Model insight
See exactly which factors moved this projection and how much weight each one carried — plus how the engine has performed on comparable games in this league and confidence band.
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Market prices
No market prices available for this game yet.
Compare with an outside price
Enter the moneyline prices you have seen elsewhere. EdgeIQ converts them into a plain chance of winning, strips out the operator's built-in margin, and shows how that compares with the model estimate. EdgeIQ does not take wagers and shows no prices of its own.
Add both prices to see the comparison.
A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Factor breakdown is unavailable for this game.
Team comparison
OS (left) versus BS (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
Oregon State
- Last 5
- 2-3
- Last 10
- 3-7
- Avg scored
- 23.3
- Avg allowed
- 29.3
- Streak
- W2
Boise State
- Last 5
- 3-2
- Last 10
- 8-2
- Avg scored
- 29.1
- Avg allowed
- 19.6
- Streak
- W3
Historical matchup
BS 1 — 0 OS
Sample size: 1 games
This is a very small sample. Head-to-head history carries little weight on its own, especially when rosters, coaching or circumstances have changed.
Player availability
Oregon State
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
Boise State
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
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