New England PatriotsatChicago Bears
Fri, Oct 23, 12:15 AM UTC · Soldier Field · Season 2026
The model compares each team's historical form and scoring profile; its estimate is not a certain outcome. Explore NFL projections, the methodology and the graded record.
Game data updated …
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
NE 17.7 — CHI 26.2
Win probability
CHI 67%
Model confidence
Moderate
Projection built from each team's scoring over its last 10 games, form weighted toward the last 3 and 5, the strength of the opponents it faced, a home-field adjustment, and a small allowance for high-production players listed as unavailable. Statistical estimate, not a guaranteed outcome.
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
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Model insight
See exactly which factors moved this projection and how much weight each one carried — plus how the engine has performed on comparable games in this league and confidence band.
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A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Team comparison
NE (left) versus CHI (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
New England Patriots
- Last 5
- 2-3
- Last 10
- 3-7
- Avg scored
- 15.4
- Avg allowed
- 23.2
- Streak
- L1
Chicago Bears
- Last 5
- 3-2
- Last 10
- 4-6
- Avg scored
- 19.8
- Avg allowed
- 22.8
- Streak
- L1
Historical matchup
CHI 1 — 1 NE
Sample size: 2 games
This is a very small sample. Head-to-head history carries little weight on its own, especially when rosters, coaching or circumstances have changed.
Player availability
New England Patriots
- Tom BradyQBavailable
- Benjamin WatsonTEavailable
- Matt SlaterWRavailable
- Julian EdelmanWRavailable
- Antonio BrownWRavailable
- James DevelinFBavailable
- Brandon BoldenRBavailable
- Mohamed SanuWRavailable
- Rex BurkheadRBavailable
- Drake Mayeavailable
- Joshua Dobbsavailable
- Rhamondre Stevensonavailable
- Antonio Gibsonavailable
- Terrell Jenningsavailable
- D'Ernest Johnsonavailable
- Mack Hollinsavailable
- Kyle Williamsavailable
- Stefon Diggsavailable
- Hunter Henryavailable
- Kayshon Boutteavailable
- Austin Hooperavailable
- Efton Chism IIIavailable
- Robert Spillaneavailable
- Christian Ellissavailable
- James WhiteRBavailable
- Lan Larisonavailable
- Dre'Mont Jonesavailable
- Erick Hunteravailable
- Jaylen Reedavailable
- Cameron Latuavailable
- Karon Pruntyavailable
- DaQuan Jonesavailable
- Jared Wilsonavailable
- Darius Muasauavailable
- Mitch Wishnowskyavailable
- Quintayvious Hutchinsquestionable
- Reggie Gilliamquestionable
- Eric TomlinsonTEavailable
- Matt LaCosseTEavailable
- Jack Gibbensavailable
- Cory Durdenavailable
- Phillip DorsettWRavailable
- Corey Kineravailable
- Elandon RobertsILBavailable
- Romeo Doubsavailable
- Demario Douglasavailable
- A.J. Brownavailable
- Kevin Byardavailable
- DeVante ParkerWRavailable
- Namdi Obiazoravailable
- Gabe Jacasavailable
- Ryan IzzoTEavailable
- Jaylinn Hawkinsavailable
- Christian Gonzalezavailable
- Marcus Jonesavailable
- Harold Landry IIIavailable
- Jahlani Tavaiavailable
- K'Lavon Chaissonavailable
- Milton Williamsavailable
- Christian Barmoreavailable
- Anfernee Jenningsavailable
- Marte Mapuavailable
- Khyiris Tongaavailable
- Elijah Ponderavailable
- Dell Pettusavailable
- Brenden Schooleravailable
- Kyle Duggeravailable
- Garrett Bradburyavailable
- Richie Grantavailable
- Corey Ballentineavailable
- Jack Westoveravailable
- Mike Onwenuavailable
- Bryce Baringeravailable
- Joshua Farmeravailable
- Alex Austinavailable
- Carlton Davis IIIavailable
- Charles Woodsavailable
- Leonard Tayloravailable
- Sony MichelRBavailable
- Craig Woodsonavailable
- Eric Gregoryavailable
- Jakobi MeyersWRavailable
- Eli Raridonquestionable
- Keion Whiteavailable
- Chad Mumaavailable
- Darius Harrisavailable
- Julian Ashbyavailable
- Mark Robinsonavailable
- Jeremiah Pharms Jr.available
- Miles Battleavailable
- Jarrett StidhamQBavailable
- Will Campbellavailable
- Caleb Murphyavailable
- D.J. Jamesavailable
- Bradyn Swinsonavailable
- Andres Borregalesavailable
- Kobee Minoravailable
- N'Keal HarryTEavailable
- Gunner OlszewskiWRavailable
- Chase WinovichDEavailable
- Damien HarrisRBavailable
- Jakob JohnsonFBavailable
- Ty MontgomeryWRavailable
- Brian HoyerQBavailable
- Devin McCourtyFSavailable
- TreVeyon Hendersonavailable
- Cam NewtonQBavailable
- Donte MoncriefWRavailable
- Damiere ByrdWRavailable
- Jordan ThomasTEavailable
- J.J. TaylorRBavailable
- Isaiah ZuberWRavailable
- Devin AsiasiTEavailable
- Dalton KeeneTEavailable
- Nelson AgholorWRavailable
- Hunter HenryTEavailable
- Kendrick BourneWRavailable
- Jonnu SmithTEavailable
- Kristian WilkersonWRavailable
- Rhamondre StevensonRBavailable
- Mac JonesQBavailable
- Lil'Jordan HumphreyWRavailable
- Marcus JonesCBavailable
- Kevin HarrisRBavailable
- Pierre StrongRBavailable
- Tyquan ThorntonWRavailable
- Bailey ZappeQBavailable
- Cody DavisFSavailable
- Ezekiel ElliottRBavailable
- Pharaoh BrownTEavailable
- JuJu Smith-SchusterWRavailable
- Mike GesickiTEavailable
- Jalen ReagorWRavailable
- Kayshon BoutteWRavailable
- Demario DouglasWRavailable
- Malik CunninghamWRavailable
- Austin HooperTEavailable
- Jacoby BrissettQBavailable
- Jamycal HastyRBavailable
- Antonio GibsonRBavailable
- K.J. OsbornWRavailable
- Vederian LoweTavailable
- Joe MiltonQBavailable
- Jaheim BellTEavailable
- Dell PettusFSavailable
- Terrell JenningsRBavailable
- Drake MayeQBavailable
- Javon BakerWRavailable
- Ja'Lynn PolkWRavailable
Chicago Bears
- Chase DanielQBavailable
- Cordarrelle PattersonRBavailable
- Trey BurtonTEavailable
- Taylor GabrielWRavailable
- Allen RobinsonWRavailable
- Ben BrauneckerTEavailable
- J.P. HoltzTEavailable
- Tarik CohenRBavailable
- Eric SaubertTEavailable
- Mitchell TrubiskyQBavailable
- Adam ShaheenTEavailable
- Ryan GriffinTEavailable
- Trevor SiemianQBavailable
- Kalif Raymondavailable
- Sam Roushavailable
- Dillon Thienemanavailable
- Cam Lewisavailable
- Anthony MillerWRavailable
- Javon WimsWRavailable
- Ryan NallRBavailable
- Jesper HorstedTEavailable
- Riley RidleyWRavailable
- David MontgomeryRBavailable
- Ted GinnWRavailable
- Jimmy GrahamTEavailable
- Bobby MassieTavailable
- Nick FolesQBavailable
- Lamar MillerRBavailable
- Tyler BrayQBavailable
- Demetrius HarrisTEavailable
- Barkevious MingoOLBavailable
- DeAndre CarterWRavailable
- Artavis PierceRBavailable
- Cole KmetTEavailable
- Darnell MooneyWRavailable
- Nathan PetermanQBavailable
- Tim BoyleQBavailable
- Equanimeous St. BrownWRavailable
- Byron PringleWRavailable
- Andy DaltonQBavailable
- Devin Bushavailable
- James Lynchavailable
- Malik Muhammadavailable
- Skyler Thomasavailable
- Kentavius Streetavailable
- Jack Sanbornavailable
- Neville Gallimoreavailable
- Xavier Woodsavailable
- Beau Gardneravailable
- Josh Blackwellavailable
- Jordan van den Bergavailable
- Cairo Santosavailable
- Zavion Thomasavailable
- Tory Tayloravailable
- Marquise GoodwinWRavailable
- Damien WilliamsRBavailable
- Damiere ByrdWRavailable
- Jesse JamesTEavailable
- DeAndre Houston-CarsonFSavailable
- Jakeem GrantWRavailable
- Caleb Williamsavailable
- Tyson Bagentquestionable
- Cole Kmetavailable
- Rodney AdamsWRavailable
- D'Andre Swiftavailable
- Kyle Monangaiavailable
- Luther Burden IIIavailable
- Roschon Johnsonavailable
- Colston Lovelandavailable
- Rome Odunzeavailable
- Jahdae Walkeravailable
- T.J. Edwardsavailable
- Montez Sweatavailable
- Tyrique Stevensonavailable
- D'Marco Jacksonavailable
- Grady Jarrettavailable
- Austin Bookeravailable
- Isaiah CoulterWRavailable
- Chris Williamsavailable
- Scott Dalyavailable
- Nikola Kalinicavailable
- Jalen Reeves-Maybinavailable
- Jonah Jacksonavailable
- Dallis Flowersavailable
- Jake Moodyavailable
- Khalil HerbertRBavailable
- Dazz NewsomeWRavailable
- Justin FieldsQBavailable
- Dante PettisWRavailable
- Khari BlasingameFBavailable
- Trevon WescoTEavailable
- Nsimba WebsterWRavailable
- N'Keal HarryWRavailable
- Darrynton EvansRBavailable
- Chase ClaypoolWRavailable
- Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWRavailable
- Trestan EbnerRBavailable
- Jake TongesTEavailable
- Velus JonesWRavailable
- Marcedes LewisTEavailable
- Trent TaylorWRavailable
- Robert TonyanTEavailable
- D'Onta ForemanRBavailable
- DJ MooreWRavailable
- Travis HomerRBavailable
- Collin JohnsonWRavailable
- Tyson BagentQBavailable
- Tyler ScottWRavailable
- Roschon JohnsonRBavailable
- Keenan AllenWRavailable
- Gerald EverettTEavailable
- Jonathan OwensSSavailable
- D'Andre SwiftRBavailable
- Josh BlackwellCBavailable
- Caleb WilliamsQBavailable
- Rome OdunzeWRavailable
- Daniel Hardyavailable
- Dayo Odeyingboavailable
- Elijah Hicksavailable
- Jaylon Johnsonavailable
- Joe Tryon-Shoyinkaavailable
- Carl Jones Jr.available
- Kyler Gordonavailable
- Ruben Hyppolite IIavailable
- Shemar Turneravailable
- Tanoh Kpassagnonavailable
- Jonathan Fordavailable
- DJ Mooreavailable
- Brittain Brownavailable
- Olamide Zaccheausavailable
- Travis Homeravailable
- Devin Duvernayavailable
- Durham Smytheavailable
- Tremaine Edmundsavailable
- Kevin Byardavailable
- Jaquan Briskeravailable
- Nahshon Wrightavailable
- Noah Sewellavailable
- C.J. Gardner-Johnsonavailable
- Gervon Dexter Sr.available
- Andrew Billingsavailable
- Nick McCloudavailable
- Dominique Robinsonavailable
- Jonathan Owensavailable
- Amen Ogbongbemigaavailable
- Jaylon Jonesavailable
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