Pittsburgh SteelersatNew Orleans Saints
Sun, Oct 25, 1:30 PM UTC · Stade de France · Season 2026
The model compares each team's historical form and scoring profile; its estimate is not a certain outcome. Explore NFL projections, the methodology and the graded record.
Game data updated …
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
PIT 22.6 — NO 17.2
Win probability
PIT 61%
Model confidence
Moderate
Projection built from each team's scoring over its last 10 games, form weighted toward the last 3 and 5, the strength of the opponents it faced, a home-field adjustment, and a small allowance for high-production players listed as unavailable. Statistical estimate, not a guaranteed outcome.
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
Loading historical accuracy…
Model vs. market
Model favourite
Pittsburgh Steelers
Model probability
61%
Market implied (margin removed)
Unavailable
EdgeIQ Edge
Unavailable
Current moneyline: PIT — · NO — · no stored market prices
Opening (first stored snapshot):
Confidence: Moderate · Model v2.0.0 · How Edge is calculated. Edge is a difference between two estimates, not a recommendation.
Why EdgeIQ sees it this way
- Recent formfavours PIT
Observation: Weighted scoring margin: -9.6 per game at home side vs -3.2 for the visitor.
- Opponent strengthfavours PIT
Observation: Average margin of opponents faced: 1.8 vs 4.7.
- Scoring balancefavours PIT
Observation: Points per game 15.3 for / 25.1 against, vs 17.3 / 21.8.
- Player availabilityfavours PIT
Observation: Missing production allowance: 1.2 points home vs 0.0 points away.
Observations are measured from past games. The probability above is the model's estimate built from them.
What could change this projection?
- 3 rostered players are listed as questionable, doubtful or out. Late status changes can move the projection.
- Some inputs were limited for this game, so the estimate carries extra uncertainty.
- Unmodelled conditions — weather, travel, motivation, late scratches — are not fully captured by any model.
Model insight
See exactly which factors moved this projection and how much weight each one carried — plus how the engine has performed on comparable games in this league and confidence band.
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Market prices
No market prices available for this game yet.
Compare with an outside price
Enter the moneyline prices you have seen elsewhere. EdgeIQ converts them into a plain chance of winning, strips out the operator's built-in margin, and shows how that compares with the model estimate. EdgeIQ does not take wagers and shows no prices of its own.
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A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Team comparison
PIT (left) versus NO (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Last 5
- 2-3
- Last 10
- 3-7
- Avg scored
- 16.6
- Avg allowed
- 22.4
- Streak
- W1
New Orleans Saints
- Last 5
- 2-3
- Last 10
- 2-8
- Avg scored
- 17.6
- Avg allowed
- 27.1
- Streak
- L1
Historical matchup
NO 0 — 1 PIT
Sample size: 1 games
This is a very small sample. Head-to-head history carries little weight on its own, especially when rosters, coaching or circumstances have changed.
Player availability
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Ben RoethlisbergerQBavailable
- Marquez Valdes-Scantlingavailable
- Scotty Milleravailable
- Spencer Andersonavailable
- Sebastian Castroavailable
- Ke'Shawn Williamsavailable
- Vance McDonaldTEavailable
- Roosevelt NixFBavailable
- Xavier GrimbleTEavailable
- Donte MoncriefWRavailable
- D'Shawn Jamisonavailable
- Corliss Waitmanavailable
- Jordan BerryPavailable
- Travis Homeravailable
- Nick VannettTEavailable
- Tevin JonesWRavailable
- Johnny HoltonWRavailable
- James ConnerRBavailable
- Ryan SwitzerWRavailable
- Trey EdmundsRBavailable
- JuJu Smith-SchusterWRavailable
- Jaylen SamuelsRBavailable
- Deon CainWRavailable
- James WashingtonWRavailable
- Germie Bernardavailable
- Ben Skowronekavailable
- Keeanu Bentonavailable
- Cameron Heywardavailable
- Asante Samuel Jr.available
- Alex Highsmithavailable
- Jack Sawyeravailable
- Mason RudolphQBavailable
- Carson Brueneravailable
- Cole Holcombavailable
- Daylen Everetteavailable
- Rico Dowdleavailable
- Kaden Wetjenavailable
- Eli Heidenreichavailable
- Jaylen Warrenquestionable
- Joey Porter Jr.questionable
- Jamel Deanquestionable
- Aaron Rodgersavailable
- DK Metcalfavailable
- Pat Freiermuthavailable
- Darnell Washingtonavailable
- Roman Wilsonavailable
- Payton Wilsonavailable
- Patrick Queenavailable
- Jalen Ramseyavailable
- T.J. Wattavailable
- Nick Herbigavailable
- Derrick Harmonavailable
- Miles Killebrewavailable
- Jeremiah Moonavailable
- DeMarvin Lealavailable
- Logan Leeavailable
- Chris Boswellavailable
- Christian Kuntzavailable
- Zach Frazieravailable
- Lew Nichols IIIavailable
- Trey Sermonavailable
- Diontae JohnsonWRavailable
- Benny SnellRBavailable
- Zach GentryTEavailable
- Tony Brooks-JamesRBavailable
- Devlin HodgesQBavailable
- Kerrith WhyteRBavailable
- Mitchell TrubiskyQBavailable
- Eric EbronTEavailable
- Derek WattFBavailable
- Jerald HawkinsTavailable
- Joshua DobbsQBavailable
- Kevin RaderTEavailable
- Ray-Ray McCloudWRavailable
- Cody WhiteWRavailable
- Mason Rudolphavailable
- Kenneth Gainwellavailable
- Jonnu Smithavailable
- Kaleb Johnsonavailable
- Connor Heywardavailable
- Calvin Austin IIIavailable
- Adam Thielenavailable
- Chuck Clarkavailable
- Brandin Echolsavailable
- Kyle Duggeravailable
- Malik Harrisonavailable
- DeShon Elliottavailable
- Juan Thornhillavailable
- Darius Slayavailable
- James Pierreavailable
- Yahya Blackavailable
- Jabrill Peppersavailable
- Esezi Otomewoavailable
- Daniel Ekualeavailable
- Chase ClaypoolWRavailable
- Anthony McFarlandRBavailable
- Marcus AllenILBavailable
- Chris BoswellKavailable
- Anthony MillerWRavailable
- Kalen BallageRBavailable
- Ulysees GilbertILBavailable
- Najee HarrisRBavailable
- Pat FreiermuthTEavailable
- Steven SimsWRavailable
- Gunner OlszewskiWRavailable
- Miles BoykinWRavailable
- Jaylen WarrenRBavailable
- George PickensWRavailable
- Connor HeywardTEavailable
- Kenny PickettQBavailable
- Allen RobinsonWRavailable
- Rod WilliamsTEavailable
- Calvin Austin IIIWRavailable
- Darnell WashingtonTEavailable
- Russell WilsonQBavailable
- Cordarrelle PattersonRBavailable
- MyCole PruittTEavailable
- Miles KillebrewSSavailable
- Mike WilliamsWRavailable
- Kyle AllenQBavailable
- Scott MillerWRavailable
- James PierreCBavailable
- Jonathan WardRBavailable
- Van JeffersonWRavailable
- Ben SkowronekWRavailable
- Justin FieldsQBavailable
- Brandon JohnsonWRavailable
- Aaron ShampklinRBavailable
- Cameron Johnstonavailable
- Michael Pittman Jr.available
- Jaquan Briskeravailable
- Robert SpearsJenningsavailable
- Riley Nowakowskiavailable
- Rayshawn Jenkinsavailable
- Sebastian Joseph-Dayavailable
New Orleans Saints
- Drew BreesQBavailable
- Ted GinnWRavailable
- Jared CookTEavailable
- Zach LineFBavailable
- Josh HillTEavailable
- Latavius MurrayRBavailable
- Teddy BridgewaterQBavailable
- Dwayne WashingtonRBavailable
- Michael ThomasWRavailable
- Taysom HillTEavailable
- Ricky OrtizFBavailable
- Austin CarrWRavailable
- Krishawn HoganWRavailable
- Justin HardeeCBavailable
- Alvin KamaraRBavailable
- Jarvis LandryWRavailable
- Tre'Quan SmithWRavailable
- Deonte HartyWRavailable
- Lil'Jordan HumphreyWRavailable
- David JohnsonRBavailable
- Jordan HowardRBavailable
- Emmanuel SandersWRavailable
- Bennie FowlerWRavailable
- Jameis WinstonQBavailable
- Michael BurtonFBavailable
- Ty MontgomeryWRavailable
- Tommylee LewisWRavailable
- Blake GillikinPavailable
- Tony JonesRBavailable
- Juwan JohnsonTEavailable
- Marquez CallawayWRavailable
- Adam TrautmanTEavailable
- Keith KirkwoodWRavailable
- Mark IngramRBavailable
- Chris HoganWRavailable
- Kenny StillsWRavailable
- Kevin WhiteWRavailable
- Trevor SiemianQBavailable
- Nick VannettTEavailable
- Tyler Shoughavailable
- Travis Etienne Jr.available
- CJ Donaldsonavailable
- Barion Brownavailable
- Garrett GriffinTEavailable
- Alex ArmahRBavailable
- Ethan WolfTEavailable
- Devine OzigboRBavailable
- Easop WinstonWRavailable
- Adam PrenticeFBavailable
- Ian BookQBavailable
- Andy DaltonQBavailable
- Eno BenjaminRBavailable
- Chris OlaveWRavailable
- Rashid ShaheedWRavailable
- Jimmy GrahamTEavailable
- Derek CarrQBavailable
- Jamaal WilliamsRBavailable
- Foster MoreauTEavailable
- Lynn BowdenWRavailable
- Kendre MillerRBavailable
- A.T. PerryWRavailable
- Jordan MimsRBavailable
- Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWRavailable
- Cedrick WilsonWRavailable
- Dante PettisWRavailable
- Clyde Edwards-HelaireRBavailable
- Kevin AustinWRavailable
- Jake HaenerQBavailable
- Spencer RattlerQBavailable
- Bub MeansWRavailable
- Matthew HayballPavailable
- Dallin HolkerTEavailable
- Jermaine JacksonWRavailable
- Mason TiptonWRavailable
- Spencer Rattleravailable
- Dante Pettisavailable
- Foster Moreauavailable
- Jack Stollavailable
- Ronnie Bellavailable
- Zaire Mitchell-Padenavailable
- Moliki Matavaoavailable
- Samori Toureavailable
- Demario Davisavailable
- Alontae Tayloravailable
- Bryan Breseeavailable
- Jonathan Bullardavailable
- Isaac Yiadomavailable
- Terrell Burgessavailable
- Jonah Williamsavailable
- Jaylan Fordavailable
- John Ridgewayavailable
- Khristian Boydavailable
- Michael Davisavailable
- Velus Jones Jr.available
- Zach Woodavailable
- Taliese Fuagaavailable
- Dillon Radunzavailable
- Blake Grupeavailable
- Eku Leotaavailable
- Charlie Smythavailable
- Nyheim Hinesavailable
- Kai Kroegeravailable
- Bryce Lanceavailable
- Noah Fantavailable
- Oscar Delpavailable
- Kevin Austin Jr.available
- Pete Werneravailable
- Kaden Ellissavailable
- Jonas Sankeravailable
- Taysom Hillavailable
- Chris Olaveavailable
- Alvin Kamaraavailable
- Devin Nealavailable
- Audric Estimeavailable
- Kendre Milleravailable
- Evan Hullavailable
- Mason Tiptonavailable
- Rashid Shaheedavailable
- Juwan Johnsonavailable
- Devaughn Veleavailable
- Brandin Cooksavailable
- Danny Stutsmanavailable
- Justin Reidavailable
- KoolAid McKinstryavailable
- Julian Blackmonavailable
- Nathan Shepherdavailable
- Carl Grandersonavailable
- Davon Godchauxavailable
- Martin Emerson Jr.available
- Anfernee Jenningsavailable
- Chris Rumph IIavailable
- Isaiah Stalbirdavailable
- Vernon Broughtonavailable
- Quincy Rileyavailable
- Jordan Howdenavailable
- Tyree Wilsonavailable
- Colby Woodenavailable
- Chase Youngavailable
- Cameron Jordanavailable
- Decamerion Richardsonavailable
- Treyton Welchavailable
- Daniel Carlsonavailable
- Jayden Priceavailable
- Ryan Wrightavailable
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