Chicago BearsatAtlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 18, 5:00 PM UTC · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Season 2026
The model compares each team's historical form and scoring profile; its estimate is not a certain outcome. Explore NFL projections, the methodology and the graded record.
Game data updated …
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
CHI 20.7 — ATL 23.0
Win probability
ATL 51%
Model confidence
Low
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
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Model insight
See exactly which factors moved this projection and how much weight each one carried — plus how the engine has performed on comparable games in this league and confidence band.
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A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Team comparison
CHI (left) versus ATL (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
Chicago Bears
- Last 5
- 3-2
- Last 10
- 4-6
- Avg scored
- 19.8
- Avg allowed
- 22.8
- Streak
- L1
Atlanta Falcons
- Last 5
- 3-2
- Last 10
- 5-5
- Avg scored
- 22.0
- Avg allowed
- 20.3
- Streak
- W1
Historical matchup
ATL 1 — 1 CHI
Sample size: 2 games
This is a very small sample. Head-to-head history carries little weight on its own, especially when rosters, coaching or circumstances have changed.
Player availability
Chicago Bears
- Chase DanielQBavailable
- Cordarrelle PattersonRBavailable
- Trey BurtonTEavailable
- Taylor GabrielWRavailable
- Allen RobinsonWRavailable
- Ben BrauneckerTEavailable
- J.P. HoltzTEavailable
- Tarik CohenRBavailable
- Eric SaubertTEavailable
- Mitchell TrubiskyQBavailable
- Adam ShaheenTEavailable
- Ryan GriffinTEavailable
- Trevor SiemianQBavailable
- Kalif Raymondavailable
- Sam Roushavailable
- Dillon Thienemanavailable
- Cam Lewisavailable
- Anthony MillerWRavailable
- Javon WimsWRavailable
- Ryan NallRBavailable
- Jesper HorstedTEavailable
- Riley RidleyWRavailable
- David MontgomeryRBavailable
- Ted GinnWRavailable
- Jimmy GrahamTEavailable
- Bobby MassieTavailable
- Nick FolesQBavailable
- Lamar MillerRBavailable
- Tyler BrayQBavailable
- Demetrius HarrisTEavailable
- Barkevious MingoOLBavailable
- DeAndre CarterWRavailable
- Artavis PierceRBavailable
- Cole KmetTEavailable
- Darnell MooneyWRavailable
- Nathan PetermanQBavailable
- Tim BoyleQBavailable
- Equanimeous St. BrownWRavailable
- Byron PringleWRavailable
- Andy DaltonQBavailable
- Devin Bushavailable
- James Lynchavailable
- Malik Muhammadavailable
- Skyler Thomasavailable
- Kentavius Streetavailable
- Jack Sanbornavailable
- Neville Gallimoreavailable
- Xavier Woodsavailable
- Beau Gardneravailable
- Josh Blackwellavailable
- Jordan van den Bergavailable
- Cairo Santosavailable
- Zavion Thomasavailable
- Tory Tayloravailable
- Marquise GoodwinWRavailable
- Damien WilliamsRBavailable
- Damiere ByrdWRavailable
- Jesse JamesTEavailable
- DeAndre Houston-CarsonFSavailable
- Jakeem GrantWRavailable
- Caleb Williamsavailable
- Tyson Bagentquestionable
- Cole Kmetavailable
- Rodney AdamsWRavailable
- D'Andre Swiftavailable
- Kyle Monangaiavailable
- Luther Burden IIIavailable
- Roschon Johnsonavailable
- Colston Lovelandavailable
- Rome Odunzeavailable
- Jahdae Walkeravailable
- T.J. Edwardsavailable
- Montez Sweatavailable
- Tyrique Stevensonavailable
- D'Marco Jacksonavailable
- Grady Jarrettavailable
- Austin Bookeravailable
- Isaiah CoulterWRavailable
- Chris Williamsavailable
- Scott Dalyavailable
- Nikola Kalinicavailable
- Jalen Reeves-Maybinavailable
- Jonah Jacksonavailable
- Dallis Flowersavailable
- Jake Moodyavailable
- Khalil HerbertRBavailable
- Dazz NewsomeWRavailable
- Justin FieldsQBavailable
- Dante PettisWRavailable
- Khari BlasingameFBavailable
- Trevon WescoTEavailable
- Nsimba WebsterWRavailable
- N'Keal HarryWRavailable
- Darrynton EvansRBavailable
- Chase ClaypoolWRavailable
- Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWRavailable
- Trestan EbnerRBavailable
- Jake TongesTEavailable
- Velus JonesWRavailable
- Marcedes LewisTEavailable
- Trent TaylorWRavailable
- Robert TonyanTEavailable
- D'Onta ForemanRBavailable
- DJ MooreWRavailable
- Travis HomerRBavailable
- Collin JohnsonWRavailable
- Tyson BagentQBavailable
- Tyler ScottWRavailable
- Roschon JohnsonRBavailable
- Keenan AllenWRavailable
- Gerald EverettTEavailable
- Jonathan OwensSSavailable
- D'Andre SwiftRBavailable
- Josh BlackwellCBavailable
- Caleb WilliamsQBavailable
- Rome OdunzeWRavailable
- Daniel Hardyavailable
- Dayo Odeyingboavailable
- Elijah Hicksavailable
- Jaylon Johnsonavailable
- Joe Tryon-Shoyinkaavailable
- Carl Jones Jr.available
- Kyler Gordonavailable
- Ruben Hyppolite IIavailable
- Shemar Turneravailable
- Tanoh Kpassagnonavailable
- Jonathan Fordavailable
- DJ Mooreavailable
- Brittain Brownavailable
- Olamide Zaccheausavailable
- Travis Homeravailable
- Devin Duvernayavailable
- Durham Smytheavailable
- Tremaine Edmundsavailable
- Kevin Byardavailable
- Jaquan Briskeravailable
- Nahshon Wrightavailable
- Noah Sewellavailable
- C.J. Gardner-Johnsonavailable
- Gervon Dexter Sr.available
- Andrew Billingsavailable
- Nick McCloudavailable
- Dominique Robinsonavailable
- Jonathan Owensavailable
- Amen Ogbongbemigaavailable
- Jaylon Jonesavailable
Atlanta Falcons
- Matt SchaubQBavailable
- Matt RyanQBavailable
- Julio JonesWRavailable
- Luke StockerTEavailable
- Jack Strandavailable
- Brian Robinson Jr.available
- Kenjon BarnerRBavailable
- Keith SmithFBavailable
- Devonta FreemanRBavailable
- Justin HardyWRavailable
- Ty SambrailoTavailable
- Austin HooperTEavailable
- Drake Londonavailable
- Jahan Dotsonavailable
- Austin Hooperavailable
- Zachariah Branchavailable
- Kyle Pittsavailable
- Olamide Zaccheausavailable
- Jessie Bates IIIavailable
- Nick Museavailable
- Brandon Dorlusavailable
- Josh Woodsavailable
- Samson Ebukamavailable
- Zach Harrisonavailable
- Jared Iveyavailable
- David Sills Vavailable
- Casey Washingtonavailable
- Ray-Ray McCloud IIIavailable
- Charlie Woerneravailable
- Dylan Drummondavailable
- DeMarcco Hellamsavailable
- Billy Bowmanavailable
- Brian HillRBavailable
- Damien WilliamsRBavailable
- MyCole PruittTEavailable
- Damiere ByrdWRavailable
- Bralen Triceavailable
- Christian BlakeWRavailable
- Ito SmithRBavailable
- Russell GageWRavailable
- Jaeden GrahamTEavailable
- Calvin RidleyWRavailable
- Olamide ZaccheausWRavailable
- Kaleb McGaryTavailable
- Qadree OllisonRBavailable
- KhaDarel Hodgeavailable
- Kaden Ellissavailable
- Dee Alfordavailable
- David Onyemataavailable
- Jalon Walkeravailable
- Arnold Ebiketieavailable
- JD Bertrandavailable
- Ronnie Harrison Jr.available
- Kentavius Streetavailable
- Leonard Floydavailable
- Sam Robertsavailable
- Natrone Brooksavailable
- Jacobee Bryantavailable
- DeAngelo Maloneavailable
- Khalid Kareemavailable
- Keith Taylor Jr.available
- Elijah Garciaavailable
- Ta'Quon Grahamavailable
- Jordan Fulleravailable
- Chris Lindstromavailable
- Elijah Wilkinsonavailable
- Younghoe Kooavailable
- Jammie Robinsonavailable
- Chris Blairavailable
- Liam McCulloughavailable
- Bradley Pinionavailable
- Clark Phillips IIIavailable
- Jake Matthewsavailable
- Teagan Quitorianoavailable
- Ryan Neuzilavailable
- Zane Gonzalezavailable
- John Parker Romoavailable
- Jamal Agnewavailable
- Marcus MariotaQBavailable
- Anthony FirkserTEavailable
- Michael Penix Jr.available
- Kirk Cousinsavailable
- Tyler Allgeieravailable
- Nathan Carteravailable
- Deven Thompkinsavailable
- Feleipe Franksavailable
- Darnell Mooneyavailable
- Todd GurleyRBavailable
- James Pearce Jr.available
- Ruke Orhorhoroavailable
- Sharrod NeasmanCBavailable
- Laquon TreadwellWRavailable
- Brandon PowellWRavailable
- Hayden HurstTEavailable
- Tony Brooks-JamesRBavailable
- Xavier Wattsavailable
- Sydney Brownavailable
- Divine Deabloavailable
- Mike Hughesavailable
- LaCale Londonavailable
- Kendal Danielsavailable
- Jake Baileyavailable
- Harold Perkins Jr.available
- Lorenzo CarterOLBavailable
- Matthew Bergeronavailable
- Christian Harrisavailable
- Nick Folkavailable
- Lee SmithTEavailable
- Cordarrelle PattersonRBavailable
- Mike DavisRBavailable
- Tajae SharpeWRavailable
- A.J. Terrellavailable
- Marvin HallWRavailable
- CJ Hendersonavailable
- Gervon Dexter Sr.available
- Za'Darius Smithavailable
- Cameron Thomasavailable
- Maason Smithavailable
- Avieon Terrellavailable
- Mike Fordavailable
- Yasir Abdullahavailable
- Wayne GallmanRBavailable
- Josh RosenQBavailable
- Parker HesseTEavailable
- Feleipe FranksTEavailable
- Frank DarbyWRavailable
- Kyle PittsTEavailable
- KhaDarel HodgeWRavailable
- Bryan EdwardsWRavailable
- John FitzPatrickTEavailable
- Caleb HuntleyRBavailable
- Avery WilliamsRBavailable
- Drake LondonWRavailable
- Tyler AllgeierRBavailable
- Desmond RidderQBavailable
- Josh AliWRavailable
- Taylor HeinickeQBavailable
- Mack HollinsWRavailable
- Jonnu SmithTEavailable
- Logan WoodsideQBavailable
- Scott MillerWRavailable
- Van JeffersonWRavailable
- Tucker FiskTEavailable
- Bijan RobinsonRBavailable
- Kirk CousinsQBavailable
- Ross DwelleyTEavailable
- Ray-Ray McCloudWRavailable
- Darnell MooneyWRavailable
- Charlie WoernerTEavailable
- Chris BlairWRavailable
- Jase McClellanRBavailable
- Casey WashingtonWRavailable
- Michael PenixQBavailable
- Cooper Rushavailable
- Bijan Robinsonavailable
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