Los Angeles ChargersatKansas City Chiefs
Sun, Oct 18, 8:25 PM UTC · Arrowhead Stadium · Season 2026
The model compares each team's historical form and scoring profile; its estimate is not a certain outcome. Explore NFL projections, the methodology and the graded record.
Game data updated …
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
LAC 18.8 — KC 25.5
Win probability
KC 81%
Model confidence
High
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
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Model insight
See exactly which factors moved this projection and how much weight each one carried — plus how the engine has performed on comparable games in this league and confidence band.
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A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Team comparison
LAC (left) versus KC (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
Los Angeles Chargers
- Last 5
- 0-5
- Last 10
- 4-6
- Avg scored
- 22.6
- Avg allowed
- 23.0
- Streak
- L5
Kansas City Chiefs
- Last 5
- 3-2
- Last 10
- 5-5
- Avg scored
- 20.1
- Avg allowed
- 21.6
- Streak
- W3
Historical matchup
KC 5 — 0 LAC
Sample size: 5 games
Head-to-head history is context, not prediction — rosters, coaching and circumstances change between meetings.
Player availability
Los Angeles Chargers
- Philip RiversQBavailable
- Lance KendricksTEavailable
- Tyrod TaylorQBavailable
- Virgil GreenTEavailable
- Travis BenjaminWRavailable
- Keenan AllenWRavailable
- Justin Herbertavailable
- Omarion Hamptonavailable
- Jaret Pattersonavailable
- Najee Harrisavailable
- Hassan Haskinsavailable
- Tre Harrisavailable
- Amar Johnsonavailable
- Quentin Johnstonavailable
- Derius Davisavailable
- Tyler Conklinavailable
- Trayveon Williamsavailable
- Nyheim Hinesavailable
- Ladd McConkeyavailable
- Keenan Allenavailable
- Oronde Gadsden IIavailable
- Will Disslyavailable
- KeAndre LambertSmithavailable
- Tucker Fiskavailable
- Scott Matlockavailable
- Daiyan Henleyavailable
- Derwin James Jr.available
- Troy Dyeavailable
- Tony Jeffersonavailable
- Tarheeb Stillavailable
- Cam Hartavailable
- Denzel Perrymanavailable
- Justin Eboigbeavailable
- Del'Shawn Phillipsavailable
- Benjamin St-Justeavailable
- Teair Tartavailable
- Khalil Mackavailable
- Jamaree Caldwellavailable
- R.J. Mickensavailable
- Da'Shawn Handavailable
- Odafe Owehavailable
- Ja'Sir Tayloravailable
- Marcus Mayeavailable
- Geremy DavisWRavailable
- Melvin GordonRBavailable
- Derek WattFBavailable
- Hunter HenryTEavailable
- Troymaine PopeRBavailable
- Mike WilliamsWRavailable
- Desmond KingCBavailable
- Sean CulkinTEavailable
- Austin EkelerRBavailable
- Andre PattonWRavailable
- Richard RodgersTEavailable
- DeAndre CarterWRavailable
- Justin JacksonRBavailable
- Jalen GuytonWRavailable
- Jason MooreWRavailable
- Gerald EverettTEavailable
- Ty LongPavailable
- Stephen AndersonTEavailable
- Kalen BallageRBavailable
- Easton StickQBavailable
- Donald ParhamTEavailable
- Tyron JohnsonWRavailable
- Maurice FfrenchWRavailable
- Darius BradwellRBavailable
- Gabe NabersFBavailable
- Justin HerbertQBavailable
- Joshua KelleyRBavailable
- Joe ReedWRavailable
- K.J. HillWRavailable
- Chase DanielQBavailable
- Jared CookTEavailable
- Andre RobertsWRavailable
- Trey Lancequestionable
- Tevaughn CampbellCBavailable
- Larry RountreeRBavailable
- Josh PalmerWRavailable
- Tre' McKittyTEavailable
- Sony MichelRBavailable
- Michael BandyWRavailable
- Zander HorvathRBavailable
- Stone SmarttTEavailable
- Isaiah SpillerRBavailable
- Nick VannettTEavailable
- Alex EricksonWRavailable
- Keelan DossWRavailable
- Trey PipkinsTavailable
- Simi FehokoWRavailable
- Nick NiemannILBavailable
- Quentin JohnstonWRavailable
- Derius DavisWRavailable
- Elijah DotsonRBavailable
- Eric TomlinsonTEavailable
- Taylor HeinickeQBavailable
- Will DisslyTEavailable
- J.K. ScottPavailable
- Gus EdwardsRBavailable
- D.J. CharkWRavailable
- Hayden HurstTEavailable
- J.K. DobbinsRBavailable
- Jalen ReagorWRavailable
- Hassan HaskinsRBavailable
- Tucker FiskTEavailable
- Scott MatlockFBavailable
- Kimani VidalRBavailable
- Ladd McConkeyWRavailable
- Cameron Dickeravailable
- Kyle Kennardavailable
- Nikko Reedavailable
- Deane Leonardavailable
- Josh Harrisavailable
- Clelin Ferrellavailable
- Austin Deculusavailable
- JK Scottavailable
- Donte Jacksonavailable
- Alohi Gilmanavailable
- Marlowe Waxavailable
- Bud Dupreeavailable
- Kendall Williamsonavailable
- Caleb Murphyavailable
- Otito Ogbonniaavailable
- Naquan Jonesavailable
- Marcus Williamsavailable
- Tuli Tuipulotuavailable
- Elijah Moldenavailable
- Brenen Thompsonquestionable
- Dalvin Tomlinsonquestionable
- Rodney Shelleyquestionable
- Keaton Mitchellavailable
- David Njokuavailable
- Charlie Kolaravailable
- Genesis Smithavailable
- Akheem Mesidoravailable
- Nick Barrettavailable
- Kimani Vidalavailable
- Alec Ingoldavailable
Kansas City Chiefs
- Dustin ColquittPavailable
- Matt MooreQBavailable
- LeSean McCoyRBavailable
- Anthony ShermanRBavailable
- Spencer WareRBavailable
- Travis KelceTEavailable
- Damien WilliamsRBavailable
- Sammy WatkinsWRavailable
- Blake BellTEavailable
- Kenneth Walker IIIavailable
- Emmett Johnsonavailable
- Khyiris Tongaavailable
- Jake Briningstoolavailable
- Jalen Royalsavailable
- Noah Grayavailable
- Nick Boltonavailable
- L'Jarius Sneedavailable
- Drue Tranquillavailable
- Alohi Gilmanavailable
- Nohl Williamsavailable
- George Karlaftisavailable
- Peter Woodsavailable
- Ben VanSumerenavailable
- Demarcus RobinsonWRavailable
- Tyreek HillWRavailable
- Patrick MahomesQBavailable
- Byron PringleWRavailable
- Darrel WilliamsRBavailable
- Deon YelderTEavailable
- Mecole HardmanWRavailable
- Darwin ThompsonRBavailable
- JuJu Smith-SchusterWRavailable
- Chad HenneQBavailable
- Le'Veon BellRBavailable
- Eric FisherTavailable
- Gehrig DieterWRavailable
- Marcus KempWRavailable
- Ricky Seals-JonesTEavailable
- Nick KeizerTEavailable
- Derrick GoreRBavailable
- Tommy TownsendPavailable
- Clyde Edwards-HelaireRBavailable
- Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWRavailable
- Justin WatsonWRavailable
- Mike RemmersTavailable
- Josh GordonWRavailable
- Jerick McKinnonRBavailable
- Michael BurtonFBavailable
- Nick AllegrettiGavailable
- Joseph FortsonTEavailable
- Noah GrayTEavailable
- Ronald JonesRBavailable
- Justyn RossWRavailable
- Kadarius ToneyWRavailable
- Isiah PachecoRBavailable
- Skyy MooreWRavailable
- Blaine GabbertQBavailable
- Donovan SmithTavailable
- Richie JamesWRavailable
- La'Mical PerineRBavailable
- Rashee RiceWRavailable
- DeAndre HopkinsWRavailable
- Carson WentzQBavailable
- Samaje PerineRBavailable
- Kareem HuntRBavailable
- Marquise BrownWRavailable
- Mike CaliendoGavailable
- Matt AraizaPavailable
- Chris OladokunQBavailable
- Peyton HendershotTEavailable
- Nikko RemigioWRavailable
- Wanya MorrisTavailable
- Baylor CuppTEavailable
- Carson SteeleRBavailable
- Jared WileyTEavailable
- Jaden HicksSSavailable
- Xavier WorthyWRavailable
- Xavier Nwankpaavailable
- R Mason Thomasavailable
- Harrison Butkeravailable
- Cooper McDonaldavailable
- Jadon Canadyavailable
- Jaylon Mooreavailable
- Christian RolandWallaceavailable
- Marcus Harrisavailable
- Felix AnudikeUzomahavailable
- Brashard Smithavailable
- Nikko Remigioavailable
- Chamarri Connerquestionable
- Patrick Mahomesavailable
- Chris Oladokunavailable
- Shane Buecheleavailable
- Gardner Minshewavailable
- Kareem Huntavailable
- Isiah Pachecoavailable
- Xavier Worthyavailable
- Rashee Riceavailable
- Clyde Edwards-Helaireavailable
- Dameon Pierceavailable
- Travis Kelceavailable
- Marquise Brownavailable
- Tyquan Thorntonavailable
- JuJu Smith-Schusteravailable
- Jared Wileyavailable
- Robert Tonyanavailable
- Bryan Cookavailable
- Jaylen Watsonavailable
- Trent McDuffieavailable
- Leo Chenalavailable
- Jaden Hicksavailable
- Ashton Gillotteavailable
- Chris Jonesavailable
- Charles Omenihuavailable
- Mike Dannaavailable
- Jerry Tilleryavailable
- Jack Cochraneavailable
- Kristian Fultonavailable
- Derrick Nnadiavailable
- Jeffrey Bassaavailable
- Kevin Knowles IIavailable
- Mike Edwardsavailable
- Mike Pennel Jr.available
- Joshua Williamsavailable
- Zacch Pickensavailable
- Omarr NormanLottavailable
- Ethan Downsavailable
- James Winchesteravailable
- Jason Brownleeavailable
- Nazeeh Johnsonavailable
- Cole Christiansenavailable
- Mike Caliendoavailable
- Marlon Tuipulotuavailable
- Josh Simmonsquestionable
- Matt Araizaavailable
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